Market icon
Politik·Israel

Wird ein anderes Land den Iran angreifen, indem...?

Market icon
Politik·Israel

Wird ein anderes Land den Iran angreifen, indem...?

$3,686,642 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$3,686,642 Vol.

Polymarket

31. März

$3,686,843 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”).

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$3,686,642
Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “strike” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Israel's limited airstrikes on October 26 targeted Iranian military sites in retaliation for Tehran's October 1 barrage of around 200 ballistic missiles, marking the most recent direct foreign strike on Iran and driving current trader consensus on escalation risks. Both sides have since emphasized de-escalation—Iran deeming the matter "concluded" absent further provocation, while Israel prioritizes operations against Iran-backed Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea. The US has publicly cautioned against broader attacks on Iranian nuclear or oil facilities to prevent regional war. Key factors include proxy conflicts, diplomatic signals, and the US presidential election on November 5, which could alter Washington's posture toward Tehran amid ongoing sanctions and alliance dynamics.

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„Wird ein anderes Land den Iran angreifen, indem...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „31. März" mit 9%, gefolgt von „7. März" mit 0%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 9¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 9% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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Dies ist ein offener Markt. Der aktuelle Spitzenreiter für „Wird ein anderes Land den Iran angreifen, indem...?" ist „31. März" mit nur 9%, dicht gefolgt von „7. März" mit 0%. Da kein Ergebnis eine starke Mehrheit hat, sehen Händler dies als hochgradig unsicher an, was einzigartige Handelsmöglichkeiten bieten kann. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert – speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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