Trader consensus shows near-certain expectation of no US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31, driven by over three years of stalled indirect Vienna negotiations since 2021, Iran's IAEA-reported uranium enrichment to near-weapons-grade levels, and unyielding US sanctions. No recent official announcements signal resumption, compounded by heightened Middle East tensions from Israeli strikes on Iranian proxies. President-elect Trump's 2018 JCPOA withdrawal and pledges for renewed maximum pressure—post-January inauguration—reinforce this view, reflecting traders' assessment of irreconcilable demands on sanctions relief and compliance. Realistic shifts could stem from an improbable lame-duck breakthrough under Biden, though historical deadlocks suggest scant probability.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
$1,138,129 Vol.
$1,138,129 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Ja
$1,138,129 Vol.
$1,138,129 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 20, 2026, 4:15 PM ET
Volumen
$1,138,129Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 20, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$1,138,129Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 20, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus shows near-certain expectation of no US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31, driven by over three years of stalled indirect Vienna negotiations since 2021, Iran's IAEA-reported uranium enrichment to near-weapons-grade levels, and unyielding US sanctions. No recent official announcements signal resumption, compounded by heightened Middle East tensions from Israeli strikes on Iranian proxies. President-elect Trump's 2018 JCPOA withdrawal and pledges for renewed maximum pressure—post-January inauguration—reinforce this view, reflecting traders' assessment of irreconcilable demands on sanctions relief and compliance. Realistic shifts could stem from an improbable lame-duck breakthrough under Biden, though historical deadlocks suggest scant probability.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen