Recent diplomatic momentum under President Trump has supported the high 81% Yes odds on a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027. Multiple rounds of Oman-mediated talks in 2025 and 2026, including sessions in Geneva and Islamabad, produced reported progress on frameworks addressing uranium enrichment, stockpiles, sanctions relief, and limits on Iran's nuclear program. Trump statements in mid-June 2026 indicated near-finalization of a memorandum of understanding that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and launch focused nuclear negotiations, building on earlier ceasefires and Iranian commitments to forgo weapons development. These developments, alongside ongoing bilateral engagement despite prior strikes and suspensions, have shaped trader consensus around the likelihood of a verifiable agreement materializing within the timeline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$2,207,744 Vol.
$2,207,744 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$2,207,744 Vol.
$2,207,744 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic momentum under President Trump has supported the high 81% Yes odds on a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027. Multiple rounds of Oman-mediated talks in 2025 and 2026, including sessions in Geneva and Islamabad, produced reported progress on frameworks addressing uranium enrichment, stockpiles, sanctions relief, and limits on Iran's nuclear program. Trump statements in mid-June 2026 indicated near-finalization of a memorandum of understanding that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and launch focused nuclear negotiations, building on earlier ceasefires and Iranian commitments to forgo weapons development. These developments, alongside ongoing bilateral engagement despite prior strikes and suspensions, have shaped trader consensus around the likelihood of a verifiable agreement materializing within the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Volumen
$2,207,744Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent diplomatic momentum under President Trump has supported the high 81% Yes odds on a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027. Multiple rounds of Oman-mediated talks in 2025 and 2026, including sessions in Geneva and Islamabad, produced reported progress on frameworks addressing uranium enrichment, stockpiles, sanctions relief, and limits on Iran's nuclear program. Trump statements in mid-June 2026 indicated near-finalization of a memorandum of understanding that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and launch focused nuclear negotiations, building on earlier ceasefires and Iranian commitments to forgo weapons development. These developments, alongside ongoing bilateral engagement despite prior strikes and suspensions, have shaped trader consensus around the likelihood of a verifiable agreement materializing within the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$2,207,744Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic momentum under President Trump has supported the high 81% Yes odds on a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027. Multiple rounds of Oman-mediated talks in 2025 and 2026, including sessions in Geneva and Islamabad, produced reported progress on frameworks addressing uranium enrichment, stockpiles, sanctions relief, and limits on Iran's nuclear program. Trump statements in mid-June 2026 indicated near-finalization of a memorandum of understanding that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and launch focused nuclear negotiations, building on earlier ceasefires and Iranian commitments to forgo weapons development. These developments, alongside ongoing bilateral engagement despite prior strikes and suspensions, have shaped trader consensus around the likelihood of a verifiable agreement materializing within the timeline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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