China's National People's Congress announced a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5% during the Two Sessions in early March—the lowest since 1991—amid ongoing property sector contraction, weak domestic consumption, and trade tensions, anchoring trader consensus at 69.5% for the 4.0-5.0% range. IMF and UBS forecasts cluster around 4.5%, citing fiscal stimulus expansion to 4% deficit-to-GDP and export momentum, while National Bureau of Statistics data indicated robust January-February activity. Q1 GDP release on April 17 remains pivotal, with 26.2% odds on 5.0-6.0% reflecting potential policy boosts despite demographic headwinds and global risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert4,0–5,0 % 70%
5,0–6,0 % 21.2%
6,0-7,0 % 4.6%
3,0–4,0 % 3.0%
$213,454 Vol.
$213,454 Vol.
31. Jan. 2026
<1,0 %
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
1%
2,0–3,0 %
1%
3,0–4,0 %
3%
4,0–5,0 %
70%
5,0–6,0 %
26%
6,0-7,0 %
5%
7,0–8,0 %
1%
8,0–9,0 %
<1%
9,0 %+
<1%
4,0–5,0 % 70%
5,0–6,0 % 21.2%
6,0-7,0 % 4.6%
3,0–4,0 % 3.0%
$213,454 Vol.
$213,454 Vol.
31. Jan. 2026
<1,0 %
$17,058 Vol.
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
$26,592 Vol.
1%
2,0–3,0 %
$5,759 Vol.
1%
3,0–4,0 %
$6,806 Vol.
3%
4,0–5,0 %
$18,867 Vol.
70%
5,0–6,0 %
$16,687 Vol.
26%
6,0-7,0 %
$18,890 Vol.
5%
7,0–8,0 %
$28,539 Vol.
1%
8,0–9,0 %
$6,056 Vol.
<1%
9,0 %+
$68,201 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's National People's Congress announced a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5% during the Two Sessions in early March—the lowest since 1991—amid ongoing property sector contraction, weak domestic consumption, and trade tensions, anchoring trader consensus at 69.5% for the 4.0-5.0% range. IMF and UBS forecasts cluster around 4.5%, citing fiscal stimulus expansion to 4% deficit-to-GDP and export momentum, while National Bureau of Statistics data indicated robust January-February activity. Q1 GDP release on April 17 remains pivotal, with 26.2% odds on 5.0-6.0% reflecting potential policy boosts despite demographic headwinds and global risks.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volumen
$213,454Enddatum
31. Jan. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's National People's Congress announced a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5% during the Two Sessions in early March—the lowest since 1991—amid ongoing property sector contraction, weak domestic consumption, and trade tensions, anchoring trader consensus at 69.5% for the 4.0-5.0% range. IMF and UBS forecasts cluster around 4.5%, citing fiscal stimulus expansion to 4% deficit-to-GDP and export momentum, while National Bureau of Statistics data indicated robust January-February activity. Q1 GDP release on April 17 remains pivotal, with 26.2% odds on 5.0-6.0% reflecting potential policy boosts despite demographic headwinds and global risks.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$213,454Enddatum
31. Jan. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's National People's Congress announced a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5% during the Two Sessions in early March—the lowest since 1991—amid ongoing property sector contraction, weak domestic consumption, and trade tensions, anchoring trader consensus at 69.5% for the 4.0-5.0% range. IMF and UBS forecasts cluster around 4.5%, citing fiscal stimulus expansion to 4% deficit-to-GDP and export momentum, while National Bureau of Statistics data indicated robust January-February activity. Q1 GDP release on April 17 remains pivotal, with 26.2% odds on 5.0-6.0% reflecting potential policy boosts despite demographic headwinds and global risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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