China's National People's Congress set the 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5–5% in early March, the lowest in over three decades, signaling trader consensus around the 4.0–5.0% outcome at 69.5% amid persistent property sector distress, subdued domestic consumption, and high local government debt. International forecasts from IMF, World Bank, and UBS cluster near 4.5%, while recent March manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4—the strongest in a year—indicating post-Lunar New Year stabilization in factory output and exports, supporting the leading range but capping upside to 5.0–6.0% at 26%. Ongoing monetary easing and fiscal measures via a record 4% budget deficit aim to bolster demand, though Q1 GDP data due mid-April could shift probabilities if below expectations. Structural rebalancing challenges temper higher brackets.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert4,0–5,0 % 70%
5,0–6,0 % 20.7%
6,0-7,0 % 4.6%
3,0–4,0 % 2.1%
$209,161 Vol.
$209,161 Vol.
31. Jan. 2026
<1,0 %
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
2%
2,0–3,0 %
1%
3,0–4,0 %
2%
4,0–5,0 %
70%
5,0–6,0 %
26%
6,0-7,0 %
5%
7,0–8,0 %
1%
8,0–9,0 %
<1%
9,0 %+
<1%
4,0–5,0 % 70%
5,0–6,0 % 20.7%
6,0-7,0 % 4.6%
3,0–4,0 % 2.1%
$209,161 Vol.
$209,161 Vol.
31. Jan. 2026
<1,0 %
$16,987 Vol.
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
$26,514 Vol.
2%
2,0–3,0 %
$5,691 Vol.
1%
3,0–4,0 %
$6,735 Vol.
2%
4,0–5,0 %
$16,458 Vol.
70%
5,0–6,0 %
$15,372 Vol.
26%
6,0-7,0 %
$18,822 Vol.
5%
7,0–8,0 %
$28,459 Vol.
1%
8,0–9,0 %
$5,988 Vol.
<1%
9,0 %+
$68,134 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's National People's Congress set the 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5–5% in early March, the lowest in over three decades, signaling trader consensus around the 4.0–5.0% outcome at 69.5% amid persistent property sector distress, subdued domestic consumption, and high local government debt. International forecasts from IMF, World Bank, and UBS cluster near 4.5%, while recent March manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4—the strongest in a year—indicating post-Lunar New Year stabilization in factory output and exports, supporting the leading range but capping upside to 5.0–6.0% at 26%. Ongoing monetary easing and fiscal measures via a record 4% budget deficit aim to bolster demand, though Q1 GDP data due mid-April could shift probabilities if below expectations. Structural rebalancing challenges temper higher brackets.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volumen
$209,161Enddatum
31. Jan. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's National People's Congress set the 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5–5% in early March, the lowest in over three decades, signaling trader consensus around the 4.0–5.0% outcome at 69.5% amid persistent property sector distress, subdued domestic consumption, and high local government debt. International forecasts from IMF, World Bank, and UBS cluster near 4.5%, while recent March manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4—the strongest in a year—indicating post-Lunar New Year stabilization in factory output and exports, supporting the leading range but capping upside to 5.0–6.0% at 26%. Ongoing monetary easing and fiscal measures via a record 4% budget deficit aim to bolster demand, though Q1 GDP data due mid-April could shift probabilities if below expectations. Structural rebalancing challenges temper higher brackets.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$209,161Enddatum
31. Jan. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's National People's Congress set the 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5–5% in early March, the lowest in over three decades, signaling trader consensus around the 4.0–5.0% outcome at 69.5% amid persistent property sector distress, subdued domestic consumption, and high local government debt. International forecasts from IMF, World Bank, and UBS cluster near 4.5%, while recent March manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4—the strongest in a year—indicating post-Lunar New Year stabilization in factory output and exports, supporting the leading range but capping upside to 5.0–6.0% at 26%. Ongoing monetary easing and fiscal measures via a record 4% budget deficit aim to bolster demand, though Q1 GDP data due mid-April could shift probabilities if below expectations. Structural rebalancing challenges temper higher brackets.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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