China's traders heavily favor 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for 2026 at 74.5%, aligning with the government's official target of 4.5–5% set during the March National People's Congress and corroborated by IMF and World Bank forecasts around 4.4–4.5%. This consensus reflects Q1 2026 GDP expansion of 5.0% year-on-year—beating expectations of 4.8% on resilient exports and infrastructure spending—but anticipates moderation amid persistent property sector weakness, subdued domestic consumption, and global risks like the Iran conflict disrupting energy supplies. The 5.0–6.0% outcome at 19.1% captures upside from potential fiscal stimulus, while higher bands remain marginal due to structural rebalancing toward high-tech sectors and decelerating export momentum. Q2 data due in July could shift probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert4,0–5,0 % 73%
5,0–6,0 % 19.7%
6,0-7,0 % 2.1%
3,0–4,0 % 2.0%
$521,259 Vol.
$521,259 Vol.
31. Jan. 2026
<1,0 %
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
<1%
2,0–3,0 %
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
2%
4,0–5,0 %
73%
5,0–6,0 %
20%
6,0-7,0 %
2%
7,0–8,0 %
<1%
8,0–9,0 %
<1%
9,0 %+
<1%
4,0–5,0 % 73%
5,0–6,0 % 19.7%
6,0-7,0 % 2.1%
3,0–4,0 % 2.0%
$521,259 Vol.
$521,259 Vol.
31. Jan. 2026
<1,0 %
$41,286 Vol.
<1%
1,0–2,0 %
$40,222 Vol.
<1%
2,0–3,0 %
$20,879 Vol.
<1%
3,0–4,0 %
$42,993 Vol.
2%
4,0–5,0 %
$134,339 Vol.
73%
5,0–6,0 %
$48,485 Vol.
20%
6,0-7,0 %
$45,985 Vol.
2%
7,0–8,0 %
$44,092 Vol.
<1%
8,0–9,0 %
$19,809 Vol.
<1%
9,0 %+
$83,170 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's traders heavily favor 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for 2026 at 74.5%, aligning with the government's official target of 4.5–5% set during the March National People's Congress and corroborated by IMF and World Bank forecasts around 4.4–4.5%. This consensus reflects Q1 2026 GDP expansion of 5.0% year-on-year—beating expectations of 4.8% on resilient exports and infrastructure spending—but anticipates moderation amid persistent property sector weakness, subdued domestic consumption, and global risks like the Iran conflict disrupting energy supplies. The 5.0–6.0% outcome at 19.1% captures upside from potential fiscal stimulus, while higher bands remain marginal due to structural rebalancing toward high-tech sectors and decelerating export momentum. Q2 data due in July could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volumen
$521,259Enddatum
31. Jan. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's traders heavily favor 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for 2026 at 74.5%, aligning with the government's official target of 4.5–5% set during the March National People's Congress and corroborated by IMF and World Bank forecasts around 4.4–4.5%. This consensus reflects Q1 2026 GDP expansion of 5.0% year-on-year—beating expectations of 4.8% on resilient exports and infrastructure spending—but anticipates moderation amid persistent property sector weakness, subdued domestic consumption, and global risks like the Iran conflict disrupting energy supplies. The 5.0–6.0% outcome at 19.1% captures upside from potential fiscal stimulus, while higher bands remain marginal due to structural rebalancing toward high-tech sectors and decelerating export momentum. Q2 data due in July could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$521,259Enddatum
31. Jan. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's traders heavily favor 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for 2026 at 74.5%, aligning with the government's official target of 4.5–5% set during the March National People's Congress and corroborated by IMF and World Bank forecasts around 4.4–4.5%. This consensus reflects Q1 2026 GDP expansion of 5.0% year-on-year—beating expectations of 4.8% on resilient exports and infrastructure spending—but anticipates moderation amid persistent property sector weakness, subdued domestic consumption, and global risks like the Iran conflict disrupting energy supplies. The 5.0–6.0% outcome at 19.1% captures upside from potential fiscal stimulus, while higher bands remain marginal due to structural rebalancing toward high-tech sectors and decelerating export momentum. Q2 data due in July could shift probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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