Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Q1 2026 China GDP growth (year-over-year) at 64.5% implied probability for 4.5-5.0%, reflecting persistent economic headwinds despite recent stimulus measures. Q3 2024 GDP expanded 4.6% y/y—below the 5% annual target—amid contracting manufacturing PMI (49.5 in November) and deflationary pressures from weak property sales and consumer spending. Beijing's September fiscal package, including bond issuance and rate cuts by the People's Bank of China, provided a short-term lift, but analysts like Goldman Sachs have trimmed 2025 forecasts to around 4.5%, signaling structural challenges into 2026 from debt deleveraging and demographics. Key watchpoints include Q4 GDP data in January and Lunar New Year consumption trends, which could sway market-implied odds further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert4,5-5,0 % 65%
5,0-5,5 % 33%
5,5-6,0 % 2.6%
4,0-4,5 % 1.3%
$194,126 Vol.
$194,126 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
<3,5 %
<1%
3,5–4,0 %
<1%
4,0-4,5 %
1%
4,5-5,0 %
65%
5,0-5,5 %
33%
5,5-6,0 %
3%
6,0 %+
<1%
4,5-5,0 % 65%
5,0-5,5 % 33%
5,5-6,0 % 2.6%
4,0-4,5 % 1.3%
$194,126 Vol.
$194,126 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
<3,5 %
$12,064 Vol.
<1%
3,5–4,0 %
$49,078 Vol.
<1%
4,0-4,5 %
$32,132 Vol.
1%
4,5-5,0 %
$16,549 Vol.
65%
5,0-5,5 %
$18,466 Vol.
33%
5,5-6,0 %
$48,431 Vol.
3%
6,0 %+
$17,407 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices Q1 2026 China GDP growth (year-over-year) at 64.5% implied probability for 4.5-5.0%, reflecting persistent economic headwinds despite recent stimulus measures. Q3 2024 GDP expanded 4.6% y/y—below the 5% annual target—amid contracting manufacturing PMI (49.5 in November) and deflationary pressures from weak property sales and consumer spending. Beijing's September fiscal package, including bond issuance and rate cuts by the People's Bank of China, provided a short-term lift, but analysts like Goldman Sachs have trimmed 2025 forecasts to around 4.5%, signaling structural challenges into 2026 from debt deleveraging and demographics. Key watchpoints include Q4 GDP data in January and Lunar New Year consumption trends, which could sway market-implied odds further.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
Volumen
$194,126Enddatum
Apr 17, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices Q1 2026 China GDP growth (year-over-year) at 64.5% implied probability for 4.5-5.0%, reflecting persistent economic headwinds despite recent stimulus measures. Q3 2024 GDP expanded 4.6% y/y—below the 5% annual target—amid contracting manufacturing PMI (49.5 in November) and deflationary pressures from weak property sales and consumer spending. Beijing's September fiscal package, including bond issuance and rate cuts by the People's Bank of China, provided a short-term lift, but analysts like Goldman Sachs have trimmed 2025 forecasts to around 4.5%, signaling structural challenges into 2026 from debt deleveraging and demographics. Key watchpoints include Q4 GDP data in January and Lunar New Year consumption trends, which could sway market-implied odds further.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volumen
$194,126Enddatum
Apr 17, 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Q1 2026 China GDP growth (year-over-year) at 64.5% implied probability for 4.5-5.0%, reflecting persistent economic headwinds despite recent stimulus measures. Q3 2024 GDP expanded 4.6% y/y—below the 5% annual target—amid contracting manufacturing PMI (49.5 in November) and deflationary pressures from weak property sales and consumer spending. Beijing's September fiscal package, including bond issuance and rate cuts by the People's Bank of China, provided a short-term lift, but analysts like Goldman Sachs have trimmed 2025 forecasts to around 4.5%, signaling structural challenges into 2026 from debt deleveraging and demographics. Key watchpoints include Q4 GDP data in January and Lunar New Year consumption trends, which could sway market-implied odds further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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