Recent second-quarter estimates for U.S. real GDP showed 1.6 percent annualized growth in Q1 2026, revised lower from the 2.0 percent advance reading and up from 0.5 percent in Q4 2025, reflecting softer consumer spending and investment alongside a rebound in government outlays post-shutdown. This data, combined with fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-related capital spending, supports the 39.0 percent market-implied odds on full-year growth above 2.5 percent, while tariff pressures, elevated energy prices, and labor-force constraints from immigration policy keep the 1.5–2.0 percent and 2.0–2.5 percent buckets competitive at 18.1 percent and 16.5 percent. Official projections from the CBO, University of Michigan, and March FOMC median cluster near 2.2–2.4 percent, underscoring the uncertainty priced into the distribution ahead of Q2 data and potential FOMC updates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertBIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026
BIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026
>2,5 % 41%
1,5–2,0 % 18.1%
2,0–2,5 % 16%
1,0–1,5 % 11.7%
$29,103 Vol.
$29,103 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
<0,5 %
5%
0,5–1,0 %
5%
1,0–1,5 %
12%
1,5–2,0 %
18%
2,0–2,5 %
16%
>2,5 %
41%
>2,5 % 41%
1,5–2,0 % 18.1%
2,0–2,5 % 16%
1,0–1,5 % 11.7%
$29,103 Vol.
$29,103 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
<0,5 %
$3,942 Vol.
5%
0,5–1,0 %
$15,364 Vol.
5%
1,0–1,5 %
$1,867 Vol.
12%
1,5–2,0 %
$1,821 Vol.
18%
2,0–2,5 %
$1,963 Vol.
16%
>2,5 %
$4,146 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent second-quarter estimates for U.S. real GDP showed 1.6 percent annualized growth in Q1 2026, revised lower from the 2.0 percent advance reading and up from 0.5 percent in Q4 2025, reflecting softer consumer spending and investment alongside a rebound in government outlays post-shutdown. This data, combined with fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-related capital spending, supports the 39.0 percent market-implied odds on full-year growth above 2.5 percent, while tariff pressures, elevated energy prices, and labor-force constraints from immigration policy keep the 1.5–2.0 percent and 2.0–2.5 percent buckets competitive at 18.1 percent and 16.5 percent. Official projections from the CBO, University of Michigan, and March FOMC median cluster near 2.2–2.4 percent, underscoring the uncertainty priced into the distribution ahead of Q2 data and potential FOMC updates.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$29,103Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent second-quarter estimates for U.S. real GDP showed 1.6 percent annualized growth in Q1 2026, revised lower from the 2.0 percent advance reading and up from 0.5 percent in Q4 2025, reflecting softer consumer spending and investment alongside a rebound in government outlays post-shutdown. This data, combined with fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-related capital spending, supports the 39.0 percent market-implied odds on full-year growth above 2.5 percent, while tariff pressures, elevated energy prices, and labor-force constraints from immigration policy keep the 1.5–2.0 percent and 2.0–2.5 percent buckets competitive at 18.1 percent and 16.5 percent. Official projections from the CBO, University of Michigan, and March FOMC median cluster near 2.2–2.4 percent, underscoring the uncertainty priced into the distribution ahead of Q2 data and potential FOMC updates.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$29,103Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent second-quarter estimates for U.S. real GDP showed 1.6 percent annualized growth in Q1 2026, revised lower from the 2.0 percent advance reading and up from 0.5 percent in Q4 2025, reflecting softer consumer spending and investment alongside a rebound in government outlays post-shutdown. This data, combined with fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-related capital spending, supports the 39.0 percent market-implied odds on full-year growth above 2.5 percent, while tariff pressures, elevated energy prices, and labor-force constraints from immigration policy keep the 1.5–2.0 percent and 2.0–2.5 percent buckets competitive at 18.1 percent and 16.5 percent. Official projections from the CBO, University of Michigan, and March FOMC median cluster near 2.2–2.4 percent, underscoring the uncertainty priced into the distribution ahead of Q2 data and potential FOMC updates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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