Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability for US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting optimism beyond the Federal Reserve's March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections median of 2.4%, bolstered by resilient labor market data showing unemployment steadying at 4.3% in March amid 178,000 nonfarm payroll gains. This positioning follows the Q4 2025 GDP third estimate's downward revision to 0.5% annualized on April 9—signaling a late-year slowdown from 2025's 2.3% average—but countered by New York Fed nowcasts of 2.3% for Q1 2026 and 2.6% for Q2 as of April 10. Lower-bucket odds, like <0.5% at 10.1%, price recession risks from tariffs and fiscal tightening, with the Q1 GDP advance estimate due late April and May FOMC ahead as key catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertBIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026
BIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026
>2,5 % 55%
1,5–2,0 % 11.6%
<0,5 % 10.2%
2,0–2,5 % 10%
$26,701 Vol.
$26,701 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
<0,5 %
10%
0,5–1,0 %
5%
1,0–1,5 %
8%
1,5–2,0 %
12%
2,0–2,5 %
10%
>2,5 %
55%
>2,5 % 55%
1,5–2,0 % 11.6%
<0,5 % 10.2%
2,0–2,5 % 10%
$26,701 Vol.
$26,701 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
<0,5 %
$3,752 Vol.
10%
0,5–1,0 %
$15,052 Vol.
5%
1,0–1,5 %
$1,460 Vol.
8%
1,5–2,0 %
$1,277 Vol.
12%
2,0–2,5 %
$1,338 Vol.
10%
>2,5 %
$3,820 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability for US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting optimism beyond the Federal Reserve's March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections median of 2.4%, bolstered by resilient labor market data showing unemployment steadying at 4.3% in March amid 178,000 nonfarm payroll gains. This positioning follows the Q4 2025 GDP third estimate's downward revision to 0.5% annualized on April 9—signaling a late-year slowdown from 2025's 2.3% average—but countered by New York Fed nowcasts of 2.3% for Q1 2026 and 2.6% for Q2 as of April 10. Lower-bucket odds, like <0.5% at 10.1%, price recession risks from tariffs and fiscal tightening, with the Q1 GDP advance estimate due late April and May FOMC ahead as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$26,701Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability for US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting optimism beyond the Federal Reserve's March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections median of 2.4%, bolstered by resilient labor market data showing unemployment steadying at 4.3% in March amid 178,000 nonfarm payroll gains. This positioning follows the Q4 2025 GDP third estimate's downward revision to 0.5% annualized on April 9—signaling a late-year slowdown from 2025's 2.3% average—but countered by New York Fed nowcasts of 2.3% for Q1 2026 and 2.6% for Q2 as of April 10. Lower-bucket odds, like <0.5% at 10.1%, price recession risks from tariffs and fiscal tightening, with the Q1 GDP advance estimate due late April and May FOMC ahead as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$26,701Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability for US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting optimism beyond the Federal Reserve's March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections median of 2.4%, bolstered by resilient labor market data showing unemployment steadying at 4.3% in March amid 178,000 nonfarm payroll gains. This positioning follows the Q4 2025 GDP third estimate's downward revision to 0.5% annualized on April 9—signaling a late-year slowdown from 2025's 2.3% average—but countered by New York Fed nowcasts of 2.3% for Q1 2026 and 2.6% for Q2 as of April 10. Lower-bucket odds, like <0.5% at 10.1%, price recession risks from tariffs and fiscal tightening, with the Q1 GDP advance estimate due late April and May FOMC ahead as key catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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