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icon for US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Economy·Wirtschaftspolitik

US GDP growth in Q2 2026?

icon for US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Economy·Wirtschaftspolitik

US GDP growth in Q2 2026?

Juli 30

Jan. 29, 2027

Juli 30

Jan. 29, 2027

2.0–2.5% 28%

2.5–3.0% 21%

3.0–3.5% 18%

≥3.5% 12%

Polymarket
NEU

2.0–2.5% 28%

2.5–3.0% 21%

3.0–3.5% 18%

≥3.5% 12%

Polymarket
NEU

<1.0%

$1,129 Vol.

2%

1.0–1.5%

$729 Vol.

5%

1.5–2.0%

$783 Vol.

10%

2.0–2.5%

$1,371 Vol.

28%

2.5–3.0%

$898 Vol.

21%

3.0–3.5%

$887 Vol.

18%

≥3.5%

$984 Vol.

12%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Divergent nowcasts for Q2 2026 real GDP growth—Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 3.3% versus St. Louis Fed Economic News Index at 1.4%—anchor trader sentiment around the 2.0–2.5% and 2.5–3.0% ranges. Q1 growth revised to 1.6% reflects post-shutdown recovery and investment strength, while elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, tariff effects, and softening consumer spending weigh on momentum. Full-year 2026 consensus forecasts cluster near 2.2–2.5%, supported by resilient business fixed investment and AI-related outlays. Key upcoming catalysts include June employment, retail sales, and inflation data that will refine nowcasts ahead of the July 30 advance estimate.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volumen
$6,781
Enddatum
30. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Divergent nowcasts for Q2 2026 real GDP growth—Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 3.3% versus St. Louis Fed Economic News Index at 1.4%—anchor trader sentiment around the 2.0–2.5% and 2.5–3.0% ranges. Q1 growth revised to 1.6% reflects post-shutdown recovery and investment strength, while elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, tariff effects, and softening consumer spending weigh on momentum. Full-year 2026 consensus forecasts cluster near 2.2–2.5%, supported by resilient business fixed investment and AI-related outlays. Key upcoming catalysts include June employment, retail sales, and inflation data that will refine nowcasts ahead of the July 30 advance estimate.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volumen
$6,781
Enddatum
30. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„US GDP growth in Q2 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 7 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „2.0–2.5%" mit 28%, gefolgt von „2.5–3.0%" mit 21%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 28¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 28% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „US GDP growth in Q2 2026?" ist „2.0–2.5%" mit 28%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 28% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „2.5–3.0%" mit 21%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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