Trader sentiment on UK annual GDP growth for 2026 reflects deep uncertainty, with a 33.5% implied probability for contraction (<0%) narrowly leading 27.5% for 0-1% and 20.5% for 1-2%, driven by January's flat monthly GDP output per ONS data—stalling after prior modest gains and yielding just 0.2% three-month growth amid rising global risks. This weak 2026 start contrasts 2025's 1.3% annual expansion, which masked per capita declines and softening labor conditions, prompting traders to discount OBR and IMF consensus forecasts of 1.1-1.4% amid fiscal headwinds and Bank of England rate cut expectations. Key differentiators include Q1 quarterly GDP (due late April), February monthly data, and May MPC signals on monetary policy, which could pivot odds toward modest recovery or deepen recession fears.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert<0 34%
1-2 % 11%
3-4 % 10.0%
4-5 % 9%
NEU
NEU
12. Feb. 2027
<0
34%
0–1 %
28%
1-2 %
21%
2–3 %
6%
3-4 %
10%
4-5 %
9%
5 %+
6%
<0 34%
1-2 % 11%
3-4 % 10.0%
4-5 % 9%
NEU
NEU
12. Feb. 2027
<0
$229 Vol.
34%
0–1 %
$248 Vol.
28%
1-2 %
$205 Vol.
21%
2–3 %
$206 Vol.
6%
3-4 %
$193 Vol.
10%
4-5 %
$283 Vol.
9%
5 %+
$230 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on UK annual GDP growth for 2026 reflects deep uncertainty, with a 33.5% implied probability for contraction (<0%) narrowly leading 27.5% for 0-1% and 20.5% for 1-2%, driven by January's flat monthly GDP output per ONS data—stalling after prior modest gains and yielding just 0.2% three-month growth amid rising global risks. This weak 2026 start contrasts 2025's 1.3% annual expansion, which masked per capita declines and softening labor conditions, prompting traders to discount OBR and IMF consensus forecasts of 1.1-1.4% amid fiscal headwinds and Bank of England rate cut expectations. Key differentiators include Q1 quarterly GDP (due late April), February monthly data, and May MPC signals on monetary policy, which could pivot odds toward modest recovery or deepen recession fears.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volumen
$1,594Enddatum
12. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on UK annual GDP growth for 2026 reflects deep uncertainty, with a 33.5% implied probability for contraction (<0%) narrowly leading 27.5% for 0-1% and 20.5% for 1-2%, driven by January's flat monthly GDP output per ONS data—stalling after prior modest gains and yielding just 0.2% three-month growth amid rising global risks. This weak 2026 start contrasts 2025's 1.3% annual expansion, which masked per capita declines and softening labor conditions, prompting traders to discount OBR and IMF consensus forecasts of 1.1-1.4% amid fiscal headwinds and Bank of England rate cut expectations. Key differentiators include Q1 quarterly GDP (due late April), February monthly data, and May MPC signals on monetary policy, which could pivot odds toward modest recovery or deepen recession fears.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$1,594Enddatum
12. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on UK annual GDP growth for 2026 reflects deep uncertainty, with a 33.5% implied probability for contraction (<0%) narrowly leading 27.5% for 0-1% and 20.5% for 1-2%, driven by January's flat monthly GDP output per ONS data—stalling after prior modest gains and yielding just 0.2% three-month growth amid rising global risks. This weak 2026 start contrasts 2025's 1.3% annual expansion, which masked per capita declines and softening labor conditions, prompting traders to discount OBR and IMF consensus forecasts of 1.1-1.4% amid fiscal headwinds and Bank of England rate cut expectations. Key differentiators include Q1 quarterly GDP (due late April), February monthly data, and May MPC signals on monetary policy, which could pivot odds toward modest recovery or deepen recession fears.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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