Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast for Q1 2026 real GDP growth remains at 1.3% annualized as of April 9—unchanged post-recent data—driving Polymarket trader consensus toward subdued expansion, with 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% outcomes tied at 23.2% implied probabilities each. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls (+178,000 jobs, unemployment steady near 4.3%) support consumer spending upside, countering hotter-than-expected CPI (+0.9% month-over-month) and Q4 2025 growth revision to 0.5% from government shutdown drag. Geopolitical risks, including Iran conflict-driven energy costs, add downside pressure. Key swing factors ahead of BEA's April 30 advance estimate: retail sales and ISM reports, with nowcast updates resuming April 21.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertBIP-Wachstum in den USA im ersten Quartal 2026?
BIP-Wachstum in den USA im ersten Quartal 2026?
1,5–2,0 % 23.2%
2,0–2,5 % 19.1%
1,0–1,5 % 18.6%
2,5–3,0 % 15.2%
$317,677 Vol.
$317,677 Vol.
30. Apr. 2026
<1,0 %
12%
1,0–1,5 %
19%
1,5–2,0 %
23%
2,0–2,5 %
19%
2,5–3,0 %
15%
3,0–3,5 %
7%
≥3,5 %
5%
1,5–2,0 % 23.2%
2,0–2,5 % 19.1%
1,0–1,5 % 18.6%
2,5–3,0 % 15.2%
$317,677 Vol.
$317,677 Vol.
30. Apr. 2026
<1,0 %
$31,802 Vol.
12%
1,0–1,5 %
$8,302 Vol.
19%
1,5–2,0 %
$31,327 Vol.
23%
2,0–2,5 %
$46,331 Vol.
19%
2,5–3,0 %
$27,297 Vol.
15%
3,0–3,5 %
$94,797 Vol.
7%
≥3,5 %
$77,820 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast for Q1 2026 real GDP growth remains at 1.3% annualized as of April 9—unchanged post-recent data—driving Polymarket trader consensus toward subdued expansion, with 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% outcomes tied at 23.2% implied probabilities each. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls (+178,000 jobs, unemployment steady near 4.3%) support consumer spending upside, countering hotter-than-expected CPI (+0.9% month-over-month) and Q4 2025 growth revision to 0.5% from government shutdown drag. Geopolitical risks, including Iran conflict-driven energy costs, add downside pressure. Key swing factors ahead of BEA's April 30 advance estimate: retail sales and ISM reports, with nowcast updates resuming April 21.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
Volumen
$317,677Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast for Q1 2026 real GDP growth remains at 1.3% annualized as of April 9—unchanged post-recent data—driving Polymarket trader consensus toward subdued expansion, with 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% outcomes tied at 23.2% implied probabilities each. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls (+178,000 jobs, unemployment steady near 4.3%) support consumer spending upside, countering hotter-than-expected CPI (+0.9% month-over-month) and Q4 2025 growth revision to 0.5% from government shutdown drag. Geopolitical risks, including Iran conflict-driven energy costs, add downside pressure. Key swing factors ahead of BEA's April 30 advance estimate: retail sales and ISM reports, with nowcast updates resuming April 21.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volumen
$317,677Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast for Q1 2026 real GDP growth remains at 1.3% annualized as of April 9—unchanged post-recent data—driving Polymarket trader consensus toward subdued expansion, with 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% outcomes tied at 23.2% implied probabilities each. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls (+178,000 jobs, unemployment steady near 4.3%) support consumer spending upside, countering hotter-than-expected CPI (+0.9% month-over-month) and Q4 2025 growth revision to 0.5% from government shutdown drag. Geopolitical risks, including Iran conflict-driven energy costs, add downside pressure. Key swing factors ahead of BEA's April 30 advance estimate: retail sales and ISM reports, with nowcast updates resuming April 21.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen