Polymarket traders are pricing a trader consensus for elevated U.K. annual CPI inflation in 2026, with the 4.5%+ outcome leading at 41.5¢ amid closely contested odds against 4.0–4.4% at 33.5¢, reflecting uncertainty over disinflation pace. Escalating Middle East conflict has driven sharp energy price rises, stalling momentum after February 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0% year-over-year—unchanged from January—while core CPI ticked up to 3.2%, signaling persistent services and wage pressures. The Bank of England unanimously held Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19, citing higher-than-expected inflation risks and revising near-term forecasts upward to 3.0–3.5%. Key swing factors include March CPI data due mid-April and the April 30 BoE meeting, where sustained energy shocks could entrench above-4% annualized rates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJährliche Inflation Großbritanniens 2026
Jährliche Inflation Großbritanniens 2026
2,0–2,4 % 24%
2,5–2,9 % 23%
3,5–3,9 % 18%
<1,0 % 7%
<1,0 %
7%
1,0–1,4 %
6%
1,5–1,9 %
21%
2,0–2,4 %
24%
2,5–2,9 %
23%
3,5–3,9 %
17%
4,0-4,4 %
35%
4,5 %+
42%
2,0–2,4 % 24%
2,5–2,9 % 23%
3,5–3,9 % 18%
<1,0 % 7%
<1,0 %
7%
1,0–1,4 %
6%
1,5–1,9 %
21%
2,0–2,4 %
24%
2,5–2,9 %
23%
3,5–3,9 %
17%
4,0-4,4 %
35%
4,5 %+
42%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders are pricing a trader consensus for elevated U.K. annual CPI inflation in 2026, with the 4.5%+ outcome leading at 41.5¢ amid closely contested odds against 4.0–4.4% at 33.5¢, reflecting uncertainty over disinflation pace. Escalating Middle East conflict has driven sharp energy price rises, stalling momentum after February 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0% year-over-year—unchanged from January—while core CPI ticked up to 3.2%, signaling persistent services and wage pressures. The Bank of England unanimously held Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19, citing higher-than-expected inflation risks and revising near-term forecasts upward to 3.0–3.5%. Key swing factors include March CPI data due mid-April and the April 30 BoE meeting, where sustained energy shocks could entrench above-4% annualized rates.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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