Polymarket traders price Mexico's 2026 annual headline inflation in a tight race across 3.00-4.49% bins, with 3.00-3.49% leading at 33.1% amid recent acceleration to 4.63% year-over-year in early March—up from 4.02% in February—driven by food and energy pressures exceeding the 3.94% consensus. Banxico's dovish surprise 25 basis point policy rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 signals anchored core inflation near 4.5% and expectations of moderation toward the 3% target, aligning with economist forecasts of 3.9-4.0% by year-end. Key swing factors include April 9 INEGI CPI data, peso-dollar dynamics around 8.80, and the May FOMC meeting's spillover risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert3,00 % bis 3,49 % 33.1%
3,50 % bis 3,99 % 29%
4,50 % bis 4,99 % 27%
5,00 % bis 5,49 % 26.3%
$33,843 Vol.
$33,843 Vol.
<2,50 %
13%
2,50 % bis 2,99 %
3%
3,00 % bis 3,49 %
33%
3,50 % bis 3,99 %
29%
4,00 % bis 4,49 %
28%
4,50 % bis 4,99 %
27%
5,00 % bis 5,49 %
21%
5,50 %+
21%
3,00 % bis 3,49 % 33.1%
3,50 % bis 3,99 % 29%
4,50 % bis 4,99 % 27%
5,00 % bis 5,49 % 26.3%
$33,843 Vol.
$33,843 Vol.
<2,50 %
13%
2,50 % bis 2,99 %
3%
3,00 % bis 3,49 %
33%
3,50 % bis 3,99 %
29%
4,00 % bis 4,49 %
28%
4,50 % bis 4,99 %
27%
5,00 % bis 5,49 %
21%
5,50 %+
21%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Markt eröffnet: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price Mexico's 2026 annual headline inflation in a tight race across 3.00-4.49% bins, with 3.00-3.49% leading at 33.1% amid recent acceleration to 4.63% year-over-year in early March—up from 4.02% in February—driven by food and energy pressures exceeding the 3.94% consensus. Banxico's dovish surprise 25 basis point policy rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 signals anchored core inflation near 4.5% and expectations of moderation toward the 3% target, aligning with economist forecasts of 3.9-4.0% by year-end. Key swing factors include April 9 INEGI CPI data, peso-dollar dynamics around 8.80, and the May FOMC meeting's spillover risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen