Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-zero implied probabilities (1% or less) to 20+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day per IMF Portwatch data, reflecting Iran's restrictions since March 1 that limit passages to select non-U.S./Israel-linked vessels via tolled routes, capping reported arrivals at 5-13 daily versus a 60-ship norm. Chinese container ships succeeded on a second attempt March 30, but totals remain suppressed amid ghosting and war risk premiums at 7.5% (50x normal), driving tanker freight rates up 300% and Brent crude's record monthly gain to $104 per barrel. U.S. Navy amphibious groups (USS Boxer, Tripoli) position for escorts, but March 31 data—due imminently—holds final sway over resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$618,734 Vol.
31. März 2026
20+
<1%
40+
<1%
60+
<1%
80+
<1%
$618,734 Vol.
20+
$287,332 Vol.
<1%
40+
$103,441 Vol.
<1%
60+
$88,884 Vol.
<1%
80+
$139,434 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-zero implied probabilities (1% or less) to 20+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day per IMF Portwatch data, reflecting Iran's restrictions since March 1 that limit passages to select non-U.S./Israel-linked vessels via tolled routes, capping reported arrivals at 5-13 daily versus a 60-ship norm. Chinese container ships succeeded on a second attempt March 30, but totals remain suppressed amid ghosting and war risk premiums at 7.5% (50x normal), driving tanker freight rates up 300% and Brent crude's record monthly gain to $104 per barrel. U.S. Navy amphibious groups (USS Boxer, Tripoli) position for escorts, but March 31 data—due imminently—holds final sway over resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volumen
$618,734Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-zero implied probabilities (1% or less) to 20+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day per IMF Portwatch data, reflecting Iran's restrictions since March 1 that limit passages to select non-U.S./Israel-linked vessels via tolled routes, capping reported arrivals at 5-13 daily versus a 60-ship norm. Chinese container ships succeeded on a second attempt March 30, but totals remain suppressed amid ghosting and war risk premiums at 7.5% (50x normal), driving tanker freight rates up 300% and Brent crude's record monthly gain to $104 per barrel. U.S. Navy amphibious groups (USS Boxer, Tripoli) position for escorts, but March 31 data—due imminently—holds final sway over resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$618,734Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-zero implied probabilities (1% or less) to 20+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day per IMF Portwatch data, reflecting Iran's restrictions since March 1 that limit passages to select non-U.S./Israel-linked vessels via tolled routes, capping reported arrivals at 5-13 daily versus a 60-ship norm. Chinese container ships succeeded on a second attempt March 30, but totals remain suppressed amid ghosting and war risk premiums at 7.5% (50x normal), driving tanker freight rates up 300% and Brent crude's record monthly gain to $104 per barrel. U.S. Navy amphibious groups (USS Boxer, Tripoli) position for escorts, but March 31 data—due imminently—holds final sway over resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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