Polymarket traders price a 95.9% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the April 29-30 FOMC meeting, reflecting broad consensus after the March 18-19 Fed decision to hold rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% amid inflation hovering above the 2% target—February CPI at 2.8% headline and 3.1% core, per official Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Chair Powell's press conference emphasized a data-dependent approach, with dot plot projections signaling just two 25 basis point cuts in 2025, likely starting mid-year, supported by resilient labor markets (March nonfarm payrolls beat estimates at 303,000). This positioning aligns with CME FedWatch Tool probabilities. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly hot April CPI data (due May 14, post-meeting) or sharper labor softening, though traders see limited upside for hikes or cuts given balanced risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertFed-Entscheidung im April?
Fed-Entscheidung im April?
Keine Änderung 95.8%
Erhöhung um 25+ Basispunkte 2.8%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 1.0%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$32,244,091 Vol.
$32,244,091 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
1%
Keine Änderung
96%
Erhöhung um 25+ Basispunkte
3%
Keine Änderung 95.8%
Erhöhung um 25+ Basispunkte 2.8%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 1.0%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$32,244,091 Vol.
$32,244,091 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$10,870,808 Vol.
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
$6,950,298 Vol.
1%
Keine Änderung
$6,404,320 Vol.
96%
Erhöhung um 25+ Basispunkte
$8,026,923 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 95.9% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the April 29-30 FOMC meeting, reflecting broad consensus after the March 18-19 Fed decision to hold rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% amid inflation hovering above the 2% target—February CPI at 2.8% headline and 3.1% core, per official Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Chair Powell's press conference emphasized a data-dependent approach, with dot plot projections signaling just two 25 basis point cuts in 2025, likely starting mid-year, supported by resilient labor markets (March nonfarm payrolls beat estimates at 303,000). This positioning aligns with CME FedWatch Tool probabilities. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly hot April CPI data (due May 14, post-meeting) or sharper labor softening, though traders see limited upside for hikes or cuts given balanced risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volumen
$32,244,091Enddatum
Apr 29, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 95.9% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the April 29-30 FOMC meeting, reflecting broad consensus after the March 18-19 Fed decision to hold rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% amid inflation hovering above the 2% target—February CPI at 2.8% headline and 3.1% core, per official Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Chair Powell's press conference emphasized a data-dependent approach, with dot plot projections signaling just two 25 basis point cuts in 2025, likely starting mid-year, supported by resilient labor markets (March nonfarm payrolls beat estimates at 303,000). This positioning aligns with CME FedWatch Tool probabilities. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly hot April CPI data (due May 14, post-meeting) or sharper labor softening, though traders see limited upside for hikes or cuts given balanced risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$32,244,091Enddatum
Apr 29, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 95.9% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the April 29-30 FOMC meeting, reflecting broad consensus after the March 18-19 Fed decision to hold rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% amid inflation hovering above the 2% target—February CPI at 2.8% headline and 3.1% core, per official Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Chair Powell's press conference emphasized a data-dependent approach, with dot plot projections signaling just two 25 basis point cuts in 2025, likely starting mid-year, supported by resilient labor markets (March nonfarm payrolls beat estimates at 303,000). This positioning aligns with CME FedWatch Tool probabilities. Realistic challenges include unexpectedly hot April CPI data (due May 14, post-meeting) or sharper labor softening, though traders see limited upside for hikes or cuts given balanced risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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