Polymarket traders price a 96% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 29-30 FOMC meeting, reflecting robust U.S. economic data that has solidified the central bank's pause after three cuts totaling 100 basis points since September 2024. March nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations with 228,000 jobs added and unemployment steady at 4.1%, while CPI inflation printed at 2.7% year-over-year—above the 2% target but decelerating gradually—prompting Fed Chair Powell's recent testimony affirming a "wait-and-see" stance amid balanced risks. Treasury yields have stabilized around 4.2% for the 10-year note, aligning with market-implied Fed funds rate paths showing no near-term easing. Challenges to this consensus could arise from softer-than-expected April inflation data or weakening labor indicators ahead of the May 7 CPI release, potentially reviving cut odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertFed-Entscheidung im April?
Fed-Entscheidung im April?
Keine Änderung 95.8%
Erhöhung um 25+ Basispunkte 2.6%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 1.0%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$32,216,695 Vol.
$32,216,695 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
1%
Keine Änderung
96%
Erhöhung um 25+ Basispunkte
3%
Keine Änderung 95.8%
Erhöhung um 25+ Basispunkte 2.6%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 1.0%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$32,216,695 Vol.
$32,216,695 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$10,864,637 Vol.
<1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
$6,947,608 Vol.
1%
Keine Änderung
$6,402,532 Vol.
96%
Erhöhung um 25+ Basispunkte
$8,003,327 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 96% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 29-30 FOMC meeting, reflecting robust U.S. economic data that has solidified the central bank's pause after three cuts totaling 100 basis points since September 2024. March nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations with 228,000 jobs added and unemployment steady at 4.1%, while CPI inflation printed at 2.7% year-over-year—above the 2% target but decelerating gradually—prompting Fed Chair Powell's recent testimony affirming a "wait-and-see" stance amid balanced risks. Treasury yields have stabilized around 4.2% for the 10-year note, aligning with market-implied Fed funds rate paths showing no near-term easing. Challenges to this consensus could arise from softer-than-expected April inflation data or weakening labor indicators ahead of the May 7 CPI release, potentially reviving cut odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volumen
$32,216,695Enddatum
Apr 29, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 96% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 29-30 FOMC meeting, reflecting robust U.S. economic data that has solidified the central bank's pause after three cuts totaling 100 basis points since September 2024. March nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations with 228,000 jobs added and unemployment steady at 4.1%, while CPI inflation printed at 2.7% year-over-year—above the 2% target but decelerating gradually—prompting Fed Chair Powell's recent testimony affirming a "wait-and-see" stance amid balanced risks. Treasury yields have stabilized around 4.2% for the 10-year note, aligning with market-implied Fed funds rate paths showing no near-term easing. Challenges to this consensus could arise from softer-than-expected April inflation data or weakening labor indicators ahead of the May 7 CPI release, potentially reviving cut odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$32,216,695Enddatum
Apr 29, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 96% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 29-30 FOMC meeting, reflecting robust U.S. economic data that has solidified the central bank's pause after three cuts totaling 100 basis points since September 2024. March nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations with 228,000 jobs added and unemployment steady at 4.1%, while CPI inflation printed at 2.7% year-over-year—above the 2% target but decelerating gradually—prompting Fed Chair Powell's recent testimony affirming a "wait-and-see" stance amid balanced risks. Treasury yields have stabilized around 4.2% for the 10-year note, aligning with market-implied Fed funds rate paths showing no near-term easing. Challenges to this consensus could arise from softer-than-expected April inflation data or weakening labor indicators ahead of the May 7 CPI release, potentially reviving cut odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen