Polymarket traders assign a 90.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus on the federal funds rate remaining at 3.50%-3.75% amid resilient economic data. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—exceeding forecasts—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, bolstering the labor market's strength following the Fed's March hold and projection for just one 2026 cut. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, aligning with the 2% target trajectory. This skin-in-the-game positioning could shift if upcoming March CPI (April 10) or May jobs data signal softening, prompting earlier easing expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertFed-Entscheidung im Juni?
Fed-Entscheidung im Juni?
Keine Änderung 91%
25 Basispunkte Senkung 7%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 2.5%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$5,582,048 Vol.
$5,582,048 Vol.
17. Juni 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
25 Basispunkte Senkung
7%
Keine Änderung
91%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
3%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
Keine Änderung 91%
25 Basispunkte Senkung 7%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 2.5%
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte <1%
$5,582,048 Vol.
$5,582,048 Vol.
17. Juni 2026
Senkung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$1,598,504 Vol.
1%
25 Basispunkte Senkung
$800,411 Vol.
7%
Keine Änderung
$1,163,045 Vol.
91%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
$1,100,604 Vol.
3%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$919,485 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 90.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus on the federal funds rate remaining at 3.50%-3.75% amid resilient economic data. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—exceeding forecasts—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, bolstering the labor market's strength following the Fed's March hold and projection for just one 2026 cut. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, aligning with the 2% target trajectory. This skin-in-the-game positioning could shift if upcoming March CPI (April 10) or May jobs data signal softening, prompting earlier easing expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Volumen
$5,582,048Enddatum
17. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 90.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus on the federal funds rate remaining at 3.50%-3.75% amid resilient economic data. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—exceeding forecasts—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, bolstering the labor market's strength following the Fed's March hold and projection for just one 2026 cut. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, aligning with the 2% target trajectory. This skin-in-the-game positioning could shift if upcoming March CPI (April 10) or May jobs data signal softening, prompting earlier easing expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$5,582,048Enddatum
17. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 90.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus on the federal funds rate remaining at 3.50%-3.75% amid resilient economic data. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—exceeding forecasts—with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, bolstering the labor market's strength following the Fed's March hold and projection for just one 2026 cut. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, aligning with the 2% target trajectory. This skin-in-the-game positioning could shift if upcoming March CPI (April 10) or May jobs data signal softening, prompting earlier easing expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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