Traders assign a 98.2% implied probability that the Federal Reserve will not be abolished before 2027 because no abolition legislation has advanced beyond committee in the current Congress, despite bills such as the Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act remaining on file. The central bank’s statutory independence, its role in dollar-based international finance, and the one-year wind-down process required by any repeal create steep procedural and political hurdles. Recent developments, including Supreme Court rulings preserving certain for-cause protections and ongoing debates over monetary policy and agency funding, have reinforced institutional stability rather than accelerated structural change. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include enactment of repeal legislation with presidential signature before year-end 2026 or an unforeseen fiscal or geopolitical crisis that prompts rapid congressional action, though both remain low-probability events within the resolution window.