Recent U.S. economic resilience, including a 162,000 August jobs gain and steady 4.1% unemployment, combined with persistent inflation pressures, prompted the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00% at its September 15-16 meeting—the first hike since 2023. This shift has pushed market-implied odds for near-term easing sharply lower, with futures now assigning roughly 83% probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC and only minimal odds of a cut. Traders are instead pricing a possible December hike amid stronger-than-expected labor data and revised Fed projections showing at least one additional tightening this year. The next key catalysts are the October employment report, upcoming CPI release, and December policy meeting, where any further cooling in inflation or labor-market softening could reopen the door to cuts in 2027.