Recent hotter-than-expected April 2026 CPI data at 3.8% year-over-year, up from 3.3% in March and driven largely by energy prices, has shifted trader sentiment sharply against near-term Federal Reserve easing. With the benchmark federal funds rate steady at the 3.5%-3.75% range following the April FOMC meeting and the unemployment rate holding near 4.3%, markets now price minimal probability of cuts through year-end amid resilient labor conditions and reaccelerating core inflation pressures. Brokerage forecasts have converged on no policy easing in 2026, with some assigning elevated odds to a potential hike. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation and employment releases will provide key tests for whether the data trajectory sustains the current hold-or-hike bias priced into futures.