Elevated April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8 percent year-over-year increase—the highest since 2023 and driven by energy price spikes—combined with the Federal Reserve’s decision at its April 29 meeting to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50–3.75 percent range, anchors trader expectations that a rate hike this year remains unlikely. Resilient payroll gains and an unemployment rate near 4.3 percent have tempered concerns over overheating, while the latest dot plot signals most participants favor keeping rates in a narrow band through year-end. With the next FOMC meeting and fresh inflation and employment releases scheduled for mid-June, these factors sustain the 71.5 percent market-implied odds against any 2026 hike as aggregated trader consensus backed by real capital.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$1,172,284 Vol.
$1,172,284 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
Ja
$1,172,284 Vol.
$1,172,284 Vol.
9. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8 percent year-over-year increase—the highest since 2023 and driven by energy price spikes—combined with the Federal Reserve’s decision at its April 29 meeting to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50–3.75 percent range, anchors trader expectations that a rate hike this year remains unlikely. Resilient payroll gains and an unemployment rate near 4.3 percent have tempered concerns over overheating, while the latest dot plot signals most participants favor keeping rates in a narrow band through year-end. With the next FOMC meeting and fresh inflation and employment releases scheduled for mid-June, these factors sustain the 71.5 percent market-implied odds against any 2026 hike as aggregated trader consensus backed by real capital.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$1,172,284Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8 percent year-over-year increase—the highest since 2023 and driven by energy price spikes—combined with the Federal Reserve’s decision at its April 29 meeting to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50–3.75 percent range, anchors trader expectations that a rate hike this year remains unlikely. Resilient payroll gains and an unemployment rate near 4.3 percent have tempered concerns over overheating, while the latest dot plot signals most participants favor keeping rates in a narrow band through year-end. With the next FOMC meeting and fresh inflation and employment releases scheduled for mid-June, these factors sustain the 71.5 percent market-implied odds against any 2026 hike as aggregated trader consensus backed by real capital.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,172,312Enddatum
9. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8 percent year-over-year increase—the highest since 2023 and driven by energy price spikes—combined with the Federal Reserve’s decision at its April 29 meeting to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50–3.75 percent range, anchors trader expectations that a rate hike this year remains unlikely. Resilient payroll gains and an unemployment rate near 4.3 percent have tempered concerns over overheating, while the latest dot plot signals most participants favor keeping rates in a narrow band through year-end. With the next FOMC meeting and fresh inflation and employment releases scheduled for mid-June, these factors sustain the 71.5 percent market-implied odds against any 2026 hike as aggregated trader consensus backed by real capital.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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