Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have elevated market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike, shifting the policy path higher from earlier expectations of cuts. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75% target range through its April 2026 meeting amid an 8-4 vote reflecting internal divisions, with April minutes highlighting concerns over persistent inflation above the 2% target and potential near-term upside risks. Resilient consumer spending and labor market conditions have further tempered cut probabilities, with CME FedWatch now pricing roughly 60% odds of a 25 basis point hike by January 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include the May PCE inflation release and subsequent FOMC communications that could clarify the balance of risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$153,589 Vol.

Junisitzung
1%

Julisitzung
3%

September-Treffen
28%

Oktobersitzung
29%
$153,589 Vol.

Junisitzung
1%

Julisitzung
3%

September-Treffen
28%

Oktobersitzung
29%
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected inflation readings and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have elevated market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike, shifting the policy path higher from earlier expectations of cuts. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50-3.75% target range through its April 2026 meeting amid an 8-4 vote reflecting internal divisions, with April minutes highlighting concerns over persistent inflation above the 2% target and potential near-term upside risks. Resilient consumer spending and labor market conditions have further tempered cut probabilities, with CME FedWatch now pricing roughly 60% odds of a 25 basis point hike by January 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include the May PCE inflation release and subsequent FOMC communications that could clarify the balance of risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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