Turkey's potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by U.S. law requiring certification that Ankara no longer possesses or operates its Russian S-400 air defense systems and provides credible assurances against future acquisitions. Diplomatic talks advanced in late 2025 under improved Trump-Erdogan ties, with the U.S. ambassador describing discussions as the most fruitful in nearly a decade, and Turkey exploring options such as transferring the S-400 to the UAE or rendering components inoperable. As of July 2026, however, the State Department has reiterated that statutory conditions under CAATSA and the FY2020 NDAA are unmet, while congressional opposition and concerns from allies like Israel and Greece add further hurdles. Ongoing bilateral negotiations and any verified S-400 resolution could shift prospects before key deadlines.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$27,108 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
31. Dezember 2026
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30. Juni 2027
36%
$27,108 Vol.
31. Dezember 2026
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30. Juni 2027
$485 Vol.
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Turkey's potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by U.S. law requiring certification that Ankara no longer possesses or operates its Russian S-400 air defense systems and provides credible assurances against future acquisitions. Diplomatic talks advanced in late 2025 under improved Trump-Erdogan ties, with the U.S. ambassador describing discussions as the most fruitful in nearly a decade, and Turkey exploring options such as transferring the S-400 to the UAE or rendering components inoperable. As of July 2026, however, the State Department has reiterated that statutory conditions under CAATSA and the FY2020 NDAA are unmet, while congressional opposition and concerns from allies like Israel and Greece add further hurdles. Ongoing bilateral negotiations and any verified S-400 resolution could shift prospects before key deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Volumen
$27,108Enddatum
30. Juni 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Turkey's potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by U.S. law requiring certification that Ankara no longer possesses or operates its Russian S-400 air defense systems and provides credible assurances against future acquisitions. Diplomatic talks advanced in late 2025 under improved Trump-Erdogan ties, with the U.S. ambassador describing discussions as the most fruitful in nearly a decade, and Turkey exploring options such as transferring the S-400 to the UAE or rendering components inoperable. As of July 2026, however, the State Department has reiterated that statutory conditions under CAATSA and the FY2020 NDAA are unmet, while congressional opposition and concerns from allies like Israel and Greece add further hurdles. Ongoing bilateral negotiations and any verified S-400 resolution could shift prospects before key deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Volumen
$27,108Enddatum
30. Juni 2027Markt eröffnet
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey's potential return to the F-35 program remains blocked by U.S. law requiring certification that Ankara no longer possesses or operates its Russian S-400 air defense systems and provides credible assurances against future acquisitions. Diplomatic talks advanced in late 2025 under improved Trump-Erdogan ties, with the U.S. ambassador describing discussions as the most fruitful in nearly a decade, and Turkey exploring options such as transferring the S-400 to the UAE or rendering components inoperable. As of July 2026, however, the State Department has reiterated that statutory conditions under CAATSA and the FY2020 NDAA are unmet, while congressional opposition and concerns from allies like Israel and Greece add further hurdles. Ongoing bilateral negotiations and any verified S-400 resolution could shift prospects before key deadlines.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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