Recent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings, driving the 73.5% implied probability for a pause–pause–pause sequence. The April 29 decision reinforced this stance with an 8–4 vote amid concerns over upside risks to consumer prices, including elevated oil costs from geopolitical tensions, while the median dot plot continues to signal limited easing this year. Markets now assign low odds to any cuts before late 2026 or beyond, reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent approach and the potential for a new chair to influence the longer-term policy path. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16–17 meeting with updated economic projections and labor data releases that could shift rate expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertPause–Pause–Pause 73%
Other 12%
Pause–Cut–Cut 8.9%
Pause–Pause–Cut 8%
NEU
NEU
16. Sep. 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
4%
Cut–Pause–Cut
6%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
73%
Pause–Pause–Cut
8%
Pause–Cut–Pause
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
9%
Other
12%
Pause–Pause–Pause 73%
Other 12%
Pause–Cut–Cut 8.9%
Pause–Pause–Cut 8%
NEU
NEU
16. Sep. 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$116 Vol.
4%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$122 Vol.
6%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$172 Vol.
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$126 Vol.
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$375 Vol.
73%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$163 Vol.
8%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 Vol.
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 Vol.
9%
Other
$122 Vol.
12%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings, driving the 73.5% implied probability for a pause–pause–pause sequence. The April 29 decision reinforced this stance with an 8–4 vote amid concerns over upside risks to consumer prices, including elevated oil costs from geopolitical tensions, while the median dot plot continues to signal limited easing this year. Markets now assign low odds to any cuts before late 2026 or beyond, reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent approach and the potential for a new chair to influence the longer-term policy path. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16–17 meeting with updated economic projections and labor data releases that could shift rate expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Markt eröffnet: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volumen
$1,450Enddatum
16. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings, driving the 73.5% implied probability for a pause–pause–pause sequence. The April 29 decision reinforced this stance with an 8–4 vote amid concerns over upside risks to consumer prices, including elevated oil costs from geopolitical tensions, while the median dot plot continues to signal limited easing this year. Markets now assign low odds to any cuts before late 2026 or beyond, reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent approach and the potential for a new chair to influence the longer-term policy path. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16–17 meeting with updated economic projections and labor data releases that could shift rate expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$1,450Enddatum
16. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings, driving the 73.5% implied probability for a pause–pause–pause sequence. The April 29 decision reinforced this stance with an 8–4 vote amid concerns over upside risks to consumer prices, including elevated oil costs from geopolitical tensions, while the median dot plot continues to signal limited easing this year. Markets now assign low odds to any cuts before late 2026 or beyond, reflecting the Fed’s data-dependent approach and the potential for a new chair to influence the longer-term policy path. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16–17 meeting with updated economic projections and labor data releases that could shift rate expectations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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