Persistent above-target inflation, including April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, combined with a resilient labor market showing steady nonfarm payrolls and unemployment near 4.3%, anchors trader expectations for no change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC communications and projections underscore a data-dependent approach, with the federal funds target range held at 3.50%-3.75% through multiple 2026 meetings as disinflation remains incomplete. This environment limits prospects for either easing or tightening, aligning with the 75.5% consensus on unchanged rates while assigning modest probability to a 25 basis point move. Upcoming releases, including May CPI and employment data, represent the primary near-term catalysts that could alter positioning ahead of the decision.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNo change 76%
25 bps increase 19%
25 bps decrease 5%
50+ bps increase 2.0%
$112,188 Vol.
$112,188 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
5%
No change
76%
25 bps increase
19%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 76%
25 bps increase 19%
25 bps decrease 5%
50+ bps increase 2.0%
$112,188 Vol.
$112,188 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
5%
No change
76%
25 bps increase
19%
50+ bps increase
2%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent above-target inflation, including April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, combined with a resilient labor market showing steady nonfarm payrolls and unemployment near 4.3%, anchors trader expectations for no change at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC communications and projections underscore a data-dependent approach, with the federal funds target range held at 3.50%-3.75% through multiple 2026 meetings as disinflation remains incomplete. This environment limits prospects for either easing or tightening, aligning with the 75.5% consensus on unchanged rates while assigning modest probability to a 25 basis point move. Upcoming releases, including May CPI and employment data, represent the primary near-term catalysts that could alter positioning ahead of the decision.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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