Elevated May 2026 CPI readings, with headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year amid a 23.5% surge in energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions, have anchored trader expectations for consecutive Federal Reserve pauses at the March, May, and June FOMC meetings. The federal funds target range remains steady at 3.50%-3.75%, supported by a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and solid nonfarm payroll gains. Market-implied odds of 99.6% for Pause–Pause–Pause reflect this data-dependent stance and alignment with futures pricing and economist surveys, which now see cuts as unlikely through year-end. Near-term resolution of the June 16-17 meeting leaves little room for reversal absent a sharp downside surprise in upcoming inflation or employment releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertPause–Pause–Pause 99.6%
Pause–Pause–Senkung <1%
Sonstiges <1%
$2,299,647 Vol.
$2,299,647 Vol.
17. Juni 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
100%
Pause–Pause–Senkung
<1%
Sonstiges
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause 99.6%
Pause–Pause–Senkung <1%
Sonstiges <1%
$2,299,647 Vol.
$2,299,647 Vol.
17. Juni 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$486,891 Vol.
100%
Pause–Pause–Senkung
$618,939 Vol.
<1%
Sonstiges
$448,475 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated May 2026 CPI readings, with headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year amid a 23.5% surge in energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions, have anchored trader expectations for consecutive Federal Reserve pauses at the March, May, and June FOMC meetings. The federal funds target range remains steady at 3.50%-3.75%, supported by a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and solid nonfarm payroll gains. Market-implied odds of 99.6% for Pause–Pause–Pause reflect this data-dependent stance and alignment with futures pricing and economist surveys, which now see cuts as unlikely through year-end. Near-term resolution of the June 16-17 meeting leaves little room for reversal absent a sharp downside surprise in upcoming inflation or employment releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Markt eröffnet: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$2,299,647Enddatum
17. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated May 2026 CPI readings, with headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year amid a 23.5% surge in energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions, have anchored trader expectations for consecutive Federal Reserve pauses at the March, May, and June FOMC meetings. The federal funds target range remains steady at 3.50%-3.75%, supported by a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and solid nonfarm payroll gains. Market-implied odds of 99.6% for Pause–Pause–Pause reflect this data-dependent stance and alignment with futures pricing and economist surveys, which now see cuts as unlikely through year-end. Near-term resolution of the June 16-17 meeting leaves little room for reversal absent a sharp downside surprise in upcoming inflation or employment releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$2,299,647Enddatum
17. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated May 2026 CPI readings, with headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year amid a 23.5% surge in energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions, have anchored trader expectations for consecutive Federal Reserve pauses at the March, May, and June FOMC meetings. The federal funds target range remains steady at 3.50%-3.75%, supported by a resilient labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and solid nonfarm payroll gains. Market-implied odds of 99.6% for Pause–Pause–Pause reflect this data-dependent stance and alignment with futures pricing and economist surveys, which now see cuts as unlikely through year-end. Near-term resolution of the June 16-17 meeting leaves little room for reversal absent a sharp downside surprise in upcoming inflation or employment releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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