Polymarket traders overwhelmingly bet the 10-year Treasury yield will dip below 3.50% before 2027, with over 70% implied probability on sub-4% troughs, anchored by the Federal Reserve's easing cycle amid disinflation. Currently at 4.28% per U.S. Treasury data, yields have slid from 4.70% peaks in April on softer CPI readings (September core at 3.3% YoY) and a 50bps fed funds cut to 4.75-5.00%. Resilient GDP growth tempers aggressive bets, but fiscal deficits and QT runoff pose upside risks. Critical catalysts include November 7 FOMC and October 4 jobs report, where sub-150K payrolls could accelerate cuts and yield declines.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$113,266 Vol.
3,9 %
57%
3,8 %
47%
3,7 %
42%
3,6 %
22%
3,5 %
17%
3,0 %
15%
2,0 %
10%
1,0 %
5%
$113,266 Vol.
3,9 %
57%
3,8 %
47%
3,7 %
42%
3,6 %
22%
3,5 %
17%
3,0 %
15%
2,0 %
10%
1,0 %
5%
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Markt eröffnet: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly bet the 10-year Treasury yield will dip below 3.50% before 2027, with over 70% implied probability on sub-4% troughs, anchored by the Federal Reserve's easing cycle amid disinflation. Currently at 4.28% per U.S. Treasury data, yields have slid from 4.70% peaks in April on softer CPI readings (September core at 3.3% YoY) and a 50bps fed funds cut to 4.75-5.00%. Resilient GDP growth tempers aggressive bets, but fiscal deficits and QT runoff pose upside risks. Critical catalysts include November 7 FOMC and October 4 jobs report, where sub-150K payrolls could accelerate cuts and yield declines.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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