Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a leading 31% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027, narrowly ahead of $750B–1T (25%) and other high-cap buckets, signaling deep uncertainty over the AI pioneer's public debut amid clustered outcomes. Primary drivers include OpenAI's October 2024 $6.6B funding at a $157B post-money valuation—far exceeding prior rounds—allowing extended private operations without IPO liquidity needs. Competitive pressures from Anthropic ($61.5B valuation) and xAI ($50B+) erode moat advantages, while $3.7B annualized revenue grapples with massive compute costs and regulatory scrutiny. Differentiators like Microsoft's capped equity stake and ChatGPT's user dominance support trillion-dollar aspirations if growth persists, but profitability hurdles temper near-term odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertOpenAI IPO Closing Marktkapitalisierung
OpenAI IPO Closing Marktkapitalisierung
Kein Börsengang bis zum 31. Dezember 2027 31%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio. 25%
500–750 Mrd. 20%
1–1,25 Billionen 17%
<500 Mrd.
15%
500–750 Mrd.
21%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio.
25%
1–1,25 Billionen
17%
1,25T–1,5T
16%
1,5T+
17%
Kein Börsengang bis zum 31. Dezember 2027
31%
Kein Börsengang bis zum 31. Dezember 2027 31%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio. 25%
500–750 Mrd. 20%
1–1,25 Billionen 17%
<500 Mrd.
15%
500–750 Mrd.
21%
750 Mrd.–1 Bio.
25%
1–1,25 Billionen
17%
1,25T–1,5T
16%
1,5T+
17%
Kein Börsengang bis zum 31. Dezember 2027
31%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
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0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a leading 31% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2027, narrowly ahead of $750B–1T (25%) and other high-cap buckets, signaling deep uncertainty over the AI pioneer's public debut amid clustered outcomes. Primary drivers include OpenAI's October 2024 $6.6B funding at a $157B post-money valuation—far exceeding prior rounds—allowing extended private operations without IPO liquidity needs. Competitive pressures from Anthropic ($61.5B valuation) and xAI ($50B+) erode moat advantages, while $3.7B annualized revenue grapples with massive compute costs and regulatory scrutiny. Differentiators like Microsoft's capped equity stake and ChatGPT's user dominance support trillion-dollar aspirations if growth persists, but profitability hurdles temper near-term odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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