Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for "No" on a Deel IPO by March 31, 2026, as the deadline passed without an S-1 registration filing with the SEC or any public listing on NYSE or Nasdaq. Deel, a leading HR tech platform for global payroll and workforce compliance, had signaled preparations through revenue growth to over $1 billion annual run rate, a $300 million funding round at $17.3 billion valuation in late 2025, and key hires like former Intuit CFO Joe Kauffman. However, a U.S. Department of Justice criminal investigation launched in January 2026 into allegations of corporate espionage against rival Rippling, coupled with ongoing civil RICO litigation, likely stalled progress amid regulatory scrutiny and market volatility. With no last-minute catalysts emerging, resolution appears certain barring rare SEC reinterpretation of filings.