Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at an implied 89.5% probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports from the past week indicating an imminent S-1 filing this week for a potential June debut targeting over $75 billion raised at a $1.75 trillion valuation—the largest ever. This surge follows SpaceX's February merger with xAI, integrating advanced AI capabilities for orbital computing and data centers alongside Starlink's user growth and launch dominance, solidifying its scale over rivals. xAI retains 25.5% odds amid merger hype, while OpenAI (3.9%) and Anthropic (3.8%) trail due to later Q4 timelines and smaller valuations; others like Stripe and Databricks lack comparable filing momentum or catalysts ahead of year-end. Watch for SEC filings and pricing roadshows as key resolution triggers.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertSpaceX 90%
OpenAI 3.9%
Anthropic 3.8%
Waymo <1%
$1,614,704 Vol.
$1,614,704 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
90%
OpenAI
4%
Anthropic
4%
Waymo
1%
Discord
1%
Kraken
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Stripe
<1%
Databricks
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
SpaceX 90%
OpenAI 3.9%
Anthropic 3.8%
Waymo <1%
$1,614,704 Vol.
$1,614,704 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
$178,093 Vol.
90%
OpenAI
$294,522 Vol.
4%
Anthropic
$341,969 Vol.
4%
Waymo
$43,845 Vol.
1%
Discord
$67,263 Vol.
1%
Kraken
$371,924 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$83,906 Vol.
<1%
Stripe
$37,119 Vol.
<1%
Databricks
$66,854 Vol.
<1%
Revolut
$24,615 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$52,904 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$51,691 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at an implied 89.5% probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports from the past week indicating an imminent S-1 filing this week for a potential June debut targeting over $75 billion raised at a $1.75 trillion valuation—the largest ever. This surge follows SpaceX's February merger with xAI, integrating advanced AI capabilities for orbital computing and data centers alongside Starlink's user growth and launch dominance, solidifying its scale over rivals. xAI retains 25.5% odds amid merger hype, while OpenAI (3.9%) and Anthropic (3.8%) trail due to later Q4 timelines and smaller valuations; others like Stripe and Databricks lack comparable filing momentum or catalysts ahead of year-end. Watch for SEC filings and pricing roadshows as key resolution triggers.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volumen
$1,614,704Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at an implied 89.5% probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports from the past week indicating an imminent S-1 filing this week for a potential June debut targeting over $75 billion raised at a $1.75 trillion valuation—the largest ever. This surge follows SpaceX's February merger with xAI, integrating advanced AI capabilities for orbital computing and data centers alongside Starlink's user growth and launch dominance, solidifying its scale over rivals. xAI retains 25.5% odds amid merger hype, while OpenAI (3.9%) and Anthropic (3.8%) trail due to later Q4 timelines and smaller valuations; others like Stripe and Databricks lack comparable filing momentum or catalysts ahead of year-end. Watch for SEC filings and pricing roadshows as key resolution triggers.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$1,614,704Enddatum
Dec 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors SpaceX at an implied 89.5% probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports from the past week indicating an imminent S-1 filing this week for a potential June debut targeting over $75 billion raised at a $1.75 trillion valuation—the largest ever. This surge follows SpaceX's February merger with xAI, integrating advanced AI capabilities for orbital computing and data centers alongside Starlink's user growth and launch dominance, solidifying its scale over rivals. xAI retains 25.5% odds amid merger hype, while OpenAI (3.9%) and Anthropic (3.8%) trail due to later Q4 timelines and smaller valuations; others like Stripe and Databricks lack comparable filing momentum or catalysts ahead of year-end. Watch for SEC filings and pricing roadshows as key resolution triggers.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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