Trader sentiment heavily favors Anthropic with a 49% implied probability of holding the #1 AI model spot by April's end, propelled by Claude 3 Opus's persistent dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where it boasts the highest Elo rating amid user-voted blind tests. Google trails at 17% on optimism for Gemini 1.5 Pro refinements, following its recent long-context window demos that narrowed the gap in April benchmarks. Lower odds for OpenAI (6.5%) reflect stagnant GPT-4o previews without shipped superiority, while Chinese contenders like ByteDance (6%) and Moonshot (5.5%) gain from aggressive Doubao and Kimi updates climbing leaderboards. No major launches loom before deadline, cementing leaderboard inertia as key.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertAnthropic 50%
Google 16%
OpenAI 7%
Amazon 6%
$15,272 Vol.
$15,272 Vol.

Anthropic
50%

16%

OpenAI
7%

Amazon
6%

Mistral
6%

xAI
6%

DeepSeek
6%

Moonshot
6%

ByteDance
6%

Meituan
6%

Z.ai
5%

Alibaba
5%

Baidu
4%
Anthropic 50%
Google 16%
OpenAI 7%
Amazon 6%
$15,272 Vol.
$15,272 Vol.

Anthropic
50%

16%

OpenAI
7%

Amazon
6%

Mistral
6%

xAI
6%

DeepSeek
6%

Moonshot
6%

ByteDance
6%

Meituan
6%

Z.ai
5%

Alibaba
5%

Baidu
4%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment heavily favors Anthropic with a 49% implied probability of holding the #1 AI model spot by April's end, propelled by Claude 3 Opus's persistent dominance on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard, where it boasts the highest Elo rating amid user-voted blind tests. Google trails at 17% on optimism for Gemini 1.5 Pro refinements, following its recent long-context window demos that narrowed the gap in April benchmarks. Lower odds for OpenAI (6.5%) reflect stagnant GPT-4o previews without shipped superiority, while Chinese contenders like ByteDance (6%) and Moonshot (5.5%) gain from aggressive Doubao and Kimi updates climbing leaderboards. No major launches loom before deadline, cementing leaderboard inertia as key.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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