OpenAI commands a 95.6% implied probability of fielding the top AI model for coding by March 31, driven by its o1 series' state-of-the-art performance on key benchmarks like HumanEval and LiveCodeBench, where the model's advanced chain-of-thought reasoning excels in complex programming tasks. This edge over Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet—currently a close second—reflects trader consensus on OpenAI's rapid iteration and compute advantages, with no rival releases in the past week shifting sentiment. Upcoming catalysts include potential announcements from Google DeepMind or xAI ahead of the deadline, while regulatory scrutiny on AI safety or a breakthrough from open-source players like DeepSeek could realistically challenge this dominance if demonstrated via independent evals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertOpenAI 95.6%
Anthropic 3.3%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$1,006,624 Vol.
$1,006,624 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
OpenAI
96%
Anthropic
3%
1%
DeepSeek
1%
xAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
OpenAI 95.6%
Anthropic 3.3%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$1,006,624 Vol.
$1,006,624 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
OpenAI
$118,545 Vol.
96%
Anthropic
$112,090 Vol.
3%
$105,045 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$209,118 Vol.
1%
xAI
$138,187 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$158,221 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$76,517 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$88,901 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/) on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.OpenAI commands a 95.6% implied probability of fielding the top AI model for coding by March 31, driven by its o1 series' state-of-the-art performance on key benchmarks like HumanEval and LiveCodeBench, where the model's advanced chain-of-thought reasoning excels in complex programming tasks. This edge over Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet—currently a close second—reflects trader consensus on OpenAI's rapid iteration and compute advantages, with no rival releases in the past week shifting sentiment. Upcoming catalysts include potential announcements from Google DeepMind or xAI ahead of the deadline, while regulatory scrutiny on AI safety or a breakthrough from open-source players like DeepSeek could realistically challenge this dominance if demonstrated via independent evals.
This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/) on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 1:29 PM ET
Volumen
$1,006,624Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 1:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/) on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.OpenAI commands a 95.6% implied probability of fielding the top AI model for coding by March 31, driven by its o1 series' state-of-the-art performance on key benchmarks like HumanEval and LiveCodeBench, where the model's advanced chain-of-thought reasoning excels in complex programming tasks. This edge over Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet—currently a close second—reflects trader consensus on OpenAI's rapid iteration and compute advantages, with no rival releases in the past week shifting sentiment. Upcoming catalysts include potential announcements from Google DeepMind or xAI ahead of the deadline, while regulatory scrutiny on AI safety or a breakthrough from open-source players like DeepSeek could realistically challenge this dominance if demonstrated via independent evals.
This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/) on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$1,006,624Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 1:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI commands a 95.6% implied probability of fielding the top AI model for coding by March 31, driven by its o1 series' state-of-the-art performance on key benchmarks like HumanEval and LiveCodeBench, where the model's advanced chain-of-thought reasoning excels in complex programming tasks. This edge over Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet—currently a close second—reflects trader consensus on OpenAI's rapid iteration and compute advantages, with no rival releases in the past week shifting sentiment. Upcoming catalysts include potential announcements from Google DeepMind or xAI ahead of the deadline, while regulatory scrutiny on AI safety or a breakthrough from open-source players like DeepSeek could realistically challenge this dominance if demonstrated via independent evals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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