Traders heavily favor SpaceX achieving a $1 trillion+ market cap at IPO before 2028 (94% implied probability), propelled by the company's December 2024 tender offer targeting a $350 billion valuation—up sharply from $210 billion earlier this year—amid Starship's breakthrough Flight Test 5 booster catch in October and record 2024 launch cadence exceeding 100 missions. Starlink's expanding constellation and millions of subscribers drive revenue projections toward $15 billion annually, bolstering reusable rocketry dominance and NASA/DoD contracts. A potential Starlink spin-off could accelerate timelines. Realistic challenges include Starship orbital refueling delays, regulatory scrutiny on launches, or Elon Musk prioritizing Tesla/xAI, though these face low odds in trader consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert1T+ 94%
Kein Börsengang vor 2028 4.3%
900 Mrd.–1 Bio. <1%
<500 Mrd. <1%
$2,684,011 Vol.
$2,684,011 Vol.
<500 Mrd.
<1%
500 Mrd.–600 Mrd.
<1%
600–700 Mrd. $
<1%
700–800 Mrd.
<1%
800–900 Mrd.
<1%
900 Mrd.–1 Bio.
1%
1T+
94%
Kein Börsengang vor 2028
4%
1T+ 94%
Kein Börsengang vor 2028 4.3%
900 Mrd.–1 Bio. <1%
<500 Mrd. <1%
$2,684,011 Vol.
$2,684,011 Vol.
<500 Mrd.
<1%
500 Mrd.–600 Mrd.
<1%
600–700 Mrd. $
<1%
700–800 Mrd.
<1%
800–900 Mrd.
<1%
900 Mrd.–1 Bio.
1%
1T+
94%
Kein Börsengang vor 2028
4%
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders heavily favor SpaceX achieving a $1 trillion+ market cap at IPO before 2028 (94% implied probability), propelled by the company's December 2024 tender offer targeting a $350 billion valuation—up sharply from $210 billion earlier this year—amid Starship's breakthrough Flight Test 5 booster catch in October and record 2024 launch cadence exceeding 100 missions. Starlink's expanding constellation and millions of subscribers drive revenue projections toward $15 billion annually, bolstering reusable rocketry dominance and NASA/DoD contracts. A potential Starlink spin-off could accelerate timelines. Realistic challenges include Starship orbital refueling delays, regulatory scrutiny on launches, or Elon Musk prioritizing Tesla/xAI, though these face low odds in trader consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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