Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 66.3% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6's dominance in March benchmarks like coding, complex reasoning, and natural prose generation, as shown in Lisanbench and developer tools such as Cursor. These February releases have solidified Anthropic's lead in head-to-head matchups, outpacing rivals in sustained task performance and agentic workflows. Google trails at 24% with Gemini 3.1 Pro's strengths in multimodal reasoning (e.g., 94.3% GPQA) and vast context windows from its mid-February upgrade, bolstered by ecosystem integration. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at 5.5% despite human-like agents, while xAI's Grok 4.20 garners 2% for multi-agent solving; lower-tier models like DeepSeek face steep scaling barriers. With rumors of Claude 4.7, Gemini 3.5, and Grok 4 swirling, the three-month window leaves room for shifts ahead of likely LMSYS Chatbot Arena resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertAnthropic 66.8%
Google 24%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.0%
$2,852,554 Vol.
$2,852,554 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
67%
24%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 66.8%
Google 24%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.0%
$2,852,554 Vol.
$2,852,554 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$565,497 Vol.
67%
$313,026 Vol.
24%
OpenAI
$99,849 Vol.
6%
xAI
$842,196 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$206,003 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$167,258 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$109,243 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$285,358 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$122,250 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$141,874 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 66.3% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6's dominance in March benchmarks like coding, complex reasoning, and natural prose generation, as shown in Lisanbench and developer tools such as Cursor. These February releases have solidified Anthropic's lead in head-to-head matchups, outpacing rivals in sustained task performance and agentic workflows. Google trails at 24% with Gemini 3.1 Pro's strengths in multimodal reasoning (e.g., 94.3% GPQA) and vast context windows from its mid-February upgrade, bolstered by ecosystem integration. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at 5.5% despite human-like agents, while xAI's Grok 4.20 garners 2% for multi-agent solving; lower-tier models like DeepSeek face steep scaling barriers. With rumors of Claude 4.7, Gemini 3.5, and Grok 4 swirling, the three-month window leaves room for shifts ahead of likely LMSYS Chatbot Arena resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$2,852,554Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 66.3% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6's dominance in March benchmarks like coding, complex reasoning, and natural prose generation, as shown in Lisanbench and developer tools such as Cursor. These February releases have solidified Anthropic's lead in head-to-head matchups, outpacing rivals in sustained task performance and agentic workflows. Google trails at 24% with Gemini 3.1 Pro's strengths in multimodal reasoning (e.g., 94.3% GPQA) and vast context windows from its mid-February upgrade, bolstered by ecosystem integration. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at 5.5% despite human-like agents, while xAI's Grok 4.20 garners 2% for multi-agent solving; lower-tier models like DeepSeek face steep scaling barriers. With rumors of Claude 4.7, Gemini 3.5, and Grok 4 swirling, the three-month window leaves room for shifts ahead of likely LMSYS Chatbot Arena resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$2,852,554Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 66.3% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6's dominance in March benchmarks like coding, complex reasoning, and natural prose generation, as shown in Lisanbench and developer tools such as Cursor. These February releases have solidified Anthropic's lead in head-to-head matchups, outpacing rivals in sustained task performance and agentic workflows. Google trails at 24% with Gemini 3.1 Pro's strengths in multimodal reasoning (e.g., 94.3% GPQA) and vast context windows from its mid-February upgrade, bolstered by ecosystem integration. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at 5.5% despite human-like agents, while xAI's Grok 4.20 garners 2% for multi-agent solving; lower-tier models like DeepSeek face steep scaling barriers. With rumors of Claude 4.7, Gemini 3.5, and Grok 4 swirling, the three-month window leaves room for shifts ahead of likely LMSYS Chatbot Arena resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen