Bipartisan Senate legislation introduced March 23 by Sens. John Curtis (R-Utah) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.)—the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act—seeks to prohibit CFTC-registered entities from listing sports event contracts resembling traditional sports bets, amid similar bills from Sens. Jeff Merkley and Rep. Jamie Raskin targeting prediction market gambling on sports, elections, and war. The CFTC's March 16 advance notice of proposed rulemaking and staff advisory further signals heightened oversight of prediction markets without pursuing an outright ban. Traders' 85% implied probability on "No" reflects the bills' early procedural stage, slim sponsorship, historical congressional gridlock on gaming regulation, and opposition from established sportsbooks like DraftKings, whose shares rose on the news, outweighing platforms like Kalshi. No committee hearings or floor votes are scheduled, underscoring enactment barriers before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertGesetz zum Verbot von Sportprognosemärkten im Jahr 2026?
Gesetz zum Verbot von Sportprognosemärkten im Jahr 2026?
Ja
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
Ja
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Bipartisan Senate legislation introduced March 23 by Sens. John Curtis (R-Utah) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.)—the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act—seeks to prohibit CFTC-registered entities from listing sports event contracts resembling traditional sports bets, amid similar bills from Sens. Jeff Merkley and Rep. Jamie Raskin targeting prediction market gambling on sports, elections, and war. The CFTC's March 16 advance notice of proposed rulemaking and staff advisory further signals heightened oversight of prediction markets without pursuing an outright ban. Traders' 85% implied probability on "No" reflects the bills' early procedural stage, slim sponsorship, historical congressional gridlock on gaming regulation, and opposition from established sportsbooks like DraftKings, whose shares rose on the news, outweighing platforms like Kalshi. No committee hearings or floor votes are scheduled, underscoring enactment barriers before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Bipartisan Senate legislation introduced March 23 by Sens. John Curtis (R-Utah) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.)—the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act—seeks to prohibit CFTC-registered entities from listing sports event contracts resembling traditional sports bets, amid similar bills from Sens. Jeff Merkley and Rep. Jamie Raskin targeting prediction market gambling on sports, elections, and war. The CFTC's March 16 advance notice of proposed rulemaking and staff advisory further signals heightened oversight of prediction markets without pursuing an outright ban. Traders' 85% implied probability on "No" reflects the bills' early procedural stage, slim sponsorship, historical congressional gridlock on gaming regulation, and opposition from established sportsbooks like DraftKings, whose shares rose on the news, outweighing platforms like Kalshi. No committee hearings or floor votes are scheduled, underscoring enactment barriers before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Bipartisan Senate legislation introduced March 23 by Sens. John Curtis (R-Utah) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.)—the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act—seeks to prohibit CFTC-registered entities from listing sports event contracts resembling traditional sports bets, amid similar bills from Sens. Jeff Merkley and Rep. Jamie Raskin targeting prediction market gambling on sports, elections, and war. The CFTC's March 16 advance notice of proposed rulemaking and staff advisory further signals heightened oversight of prediction markets without pursuing an outright ban. Traders' 85% implied probability on "No" reflects the bills' early procedural stage, slim sponsorship, historical congressional gridlock on gaming regulation, and opposition from established sportsbooks like DraftKings, whose shares rose on the news, outweighing platforms like Kalshi. No committee hearings or floor votes are scheduled, underscoring enactment barriers before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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