Trader consensus on a 57.5% implied probability for Donald Trump's impeachment before his second presidential term ends centers on the Republican House majority's razor-thin 220-215 edge, vulnerable to resignations, special elections, or bipartisan defections amid fiscal clashes like debt ceiling fights. Recent House certification highlighted this fragility, while Democrats vow investigations into administration conduct, echoing Trump's two prior impeachments. Controversies over nominees such as Matt Gaetz's abrupt withdrawal and Pete Hegseth's vetting issues amplify risks of articles advancing via simple majority vote, though Senate conviction faces steep hurdles with 53 GOP seats. Upcoming budget battles could further sway odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWill Trump be impeached before his term ends?
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a 57.5% implied probability for Donald Trump's impeachment before his second presidential term ends centers on the Republican House majority's razor-thin 220-215 edge, vulnerable to resignations, special elections, or bipartisan defections amid fiscal clashes like debt ceiling fights. Recent House certification highlighted this fragility, while Democrats vow investigations into administration conduct, echoing Trump's two prior impeachments. Controversies over nominees such as Matt Gaetz's abrupt withdrawal and Pete Hegseth's vetting issues amplify risks of articles advancing via simple majority vote, though Senate conviction faces steep hurdles with 53 GOP seats. Upcoming budget battles could further sway odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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