Recent AtlasIntel polling from March 18-23 shows Senator Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a simulated runoff at 47.6% to 46.6%, marking the opposition's strongest showing yet and fueling trader consensus for a tight race ahead of the October 4 first round. Flávio's rapid rise from the low 20s late last year reflects consolidation of right-wing votes following Ratinho Júnior's March 23 presidential bid withdrawal, alongside 53.5% government disapproval amid economic pressures. High undecided rates (10-20%) and regional divides in swing states keep probabilities volatile; further polls, endorsements, or scandals could tip the balance toward a runoff on October 25.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertFlávio Bolsonaro 43.6%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 42%
Renan Santos 6.2%
Fernando Haddad 3.9%
$32,689,615 Vol.
$32,689,615 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro
44%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
42%

Renan Santos
6%

Fernando Haddad
4%

Jair Bolsonaro
1%

Tarcisio de Freitas
1%

Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%

Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%

Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 43.6%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 42%
Renan Santos 6.2%
Fernando Haddad 3.9%
$32,689,615 Vol.
$32,689,615 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro
44%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
42%

Renan Santos
6%

Fernando Haddad
4%

Jair Bolsonaro
1%

Tarcisio de Freitas
1%

Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%

Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%

Ratinho Júnior
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Markt eröffnet: Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent AtlasIntel polling from March 18-23 shows Senator Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a simulated runoff at 47.6% to 46.6%, marking the opposition's strongest showing yet and fueling trader consensus for a tight race ahead of the October 4 first round. Flávio's rapid rise from the low 20s late last year reflects consolidation of right-wing votes following Ratinho Júnior's March 23 presidential bid withdrawal, alongside 53.5% government disapproval amid economic pressures. High undecided rates (10-20%) and regional divides in swing states keep probabilities volatile; further polls, endorsements, or scandals could tip the balance toward a runoff on October 25.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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