Recent AtlasIntel polling from March 18-23 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro 46% to 43% in first-round voting intentions, with MBL leader Renan Santos at 5%, fueling trader consensus on a sub-5% Lula margin at 37% implied probability amid the tightest race yet. Flávio Bolsonaro's surge—closing prior double-digit gaps via his father's endorsement and right-wing consolidation—elevates his own sub-5% victory odds to 25.5%, while Lula's 5-10% margin trades at 17.5%. Fragmented fields including Governors Ratinho Júnior and Tarcísio de Freitas cap outright wins low, as no candidate nears 50% needed to avoid an October 4 runoff. Upcoming polls and campaign momentum could tip the balance in this polarized contest.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertBrasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges
Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges
Lula da Silva <5% 36%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 26%
Lula da Silva 5–10 % 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10 % 8.6%
$13,864 Vol.
$13,864 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
6%
Lula da Silva 10–15 %
3%
Lula da Silva 5–10 %
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
36%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10 %+
5%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10 %
9%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
26%
Sieg von Renan Santos
6%
Tarcisio de Freitas Sieg
3%
Ratinho Júnior Sieg
3%
Andere
4%
Lula da Silva <5% 36%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 26%
Lula da Silva 5–10 % 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10 % 8.6%
$13,864 Vol.
$13,864 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$3,547 Vol.
6%
Lula da Silva 10–15 %
$1,310 Vol.
3%
Lula da Silva 5–10 %
$1,702 Vol.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$1,560 Vol.
36%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10 %+
$675 Vol.
5%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10 %
$678 Vol.
9%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$1,430 Vol.
26%
Sieg von Renan Santos
$808 Vol.
6%
Tarcisio de Freitas Sieg
$521 Vol.
3%
Ratinho Júnior Sieg
$808 Vol.
3%
Andere
$825 Vol.
4%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent AtlasIntel polling from March 18-23 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro 46% to 43% in first-round voting intentions, with MBL leader Renan Santos at 5%, fueling trader consensus on a sub-5% Lula margin at 37% implied probability amid the tightest race yet. Flávio Bolsonaro's surge—closing prior double-digit gaps via his father's endorsement and right-wing consolidation—elevates his own sub-5% victory odds to 25.5%, while Lula's 5-10% margin trades at 17.5%. Fragmented fields including Governors Ratinho Júnior and Tarcísio de Freitas cap outright wins low, as no candidate nears 50% needed to avoid an October 4 runoff. Upcoming polls and campaign momentum could tip the balance in this polarized contest.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Markt eröffnet: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volumen
$13,864Enddatum
Oct 4, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent AtlasIntel polling from March 18-23 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro 46% to 43% in first-round voting intentions, with MBL leader Renan Santos at 5%, fueling trader consensus on a sub-5% Lula margin at 37% implied probability amid the tightest race yet. Flávio Bolsonaro's surge—closing prior double-digit gaps via his father's endorsement and right-wing consolidation—elevates his own sub-5% victory odds to 25.5%, while Lula's 5-10% margin trades at 17.5%. Fragmented fields including Governors Ratinho Júnior and Tarcísio de Freitas cap outright wins low, as no candidate nears 50% needed to avoid an October 4 runoff. Upcoming polls and campaign momentum could tip the balance in this polarized contest.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$13,864Enddatum
Oct 4, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent AtlasIntel polling from March 18-23 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro 46% to 43% in first-round voting intentions, with MBL leader Renan Santos at 5%, fueling trader consensus on a sub-5% Lula margin at 37% implied probability amid the tightest race yet. Flávio Bolsonaro's surge—closing prior double-digit gaps via his father's endorsement and right-wing consolidation—elevates his own sub-5% victory odds to 25.5%, while Lula's 5-10% margin trades at 17.5%. Fragmented fields including Governors Ratinho Júnior and Tarcísio de Freitas cap outright wins low, as no candidate nears 50% needed to avoid an October 4 runoff. Upcoming polls and campaign momentum could tip the balance in this polarized contest.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen