Recent polling from Quaest and Datafolha shows incumbent President Lula da Silva leading Brazil's 2026 presidential first-round field at around 32-35%, but with a fragmented opposition—Tarcísio de Freitas at 24%, Ratinho Júnior at 12%, and Flávio Bolsonaro lower—yielding trader consensus on a sub-5% plurality margin for Lula at 37% implied probability. Lula's edge reflects steady PT base turnout despite slipping approval ratings amid inflation concerns, while right-wing vote-splitting boosts his relative position. Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% margin at 25.5% captures bets on Bolsonaro family mobilization overcoming polls. Victory odds for others remain low amid no-confidence triggers like no clear challenger path to plurality before the October 4, 2026, first round.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertBrasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges
Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges
Lula da Silva <5% 37%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 26%
Lula da Silva 5–10 % 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10 % 7.8%
$13,822 Vol.
$13,822 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
6%
Lula da Silva 10–15 %
3%
Lula da Silva 5–10 %
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
37%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10 %+
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10 %
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
26%
Sieg von Renan Santos
6%
Tarcisio de Freitas Sieg
2%
Ratinho Júnior Sieg
4%
Andere
4%
Lula da Silva <5% 37%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 26%
Lula da Silva 5–10 % 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10 % 7.8%
$13,822 Vol.
$13,822 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$3,547 Vol.
6%
Lula da Silva 10–15 %
$1,310 Vol.
3%
Lula da Silva 5–10 %
$1,695 Vol.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$1,558 Vol.
37%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10 %+
$675 Vol.
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10 %
$678 Vol.
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$1,398 Vol.
26%
Sieg von Renan Santos
$808 Vol.
6%
Tarcisio de Freitas Sieg
$521 Vol.
2%
Ratinho Júnior Sieg
$808 Vol.
4%
Andere
$825 Vol.
4%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Quaest and Datafolha shows incumbent President Lula da Silva leading Brazil's 2026 presidential first-round field at around 32-35%, but with a fragmented opposition—Tarcísio de Freitas at 24%, Ratinho Júnior at 12%, and Flávio Bolsonaro lower—yielding trader consensus on a sub-5% plurality margin for Lula at 37% implied probability. Lula's edge reflects steady PT base turnout despite slipping approval ratings amid inflation concerns, while right-wing vote-splitting boosts his relative position. Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% margin at 25.5% captures bets on Bolsonaro family mobilization overcoming polls. Victory odds for others remain low amid no-confidence triggers like no clear challenger path to plurality before the October 4, 2026, first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Markt eröffnet: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volumen
$13,822Enddatum
Oct 4, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Quaest and Datafolha shows incumbent President Lula da Silva leading Brazil's 2026 presidential first-round field at around 32-35%, but with a fragmented opposition—Tarcísio de Freitas at 24%, Ratinho Júnior at 12%, and Flávio Bolsonaro lower—yielding trader consensus on a sub-5% plurality margin for Lula at 37% implied probability. Lula's edge reflects steady PT base turnout despite slipping approval ratings amid inflation concerns, while right-wing vote-splitting boosts his relative position. Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% margin at 25.5% captures bets on Bolsonaro family mobilization overcoming polls. Victory odds for others remain low amid no-confidence triggers like no clear challenger path to plurality before the October 4, 2026, first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$13,822Enddatum
Oct 4, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling from Quaest and Datafolha shows incumbent President Lula da Silva leading Brazil's 2026 presidential first-round field at around 32-35%, but with a fragmented opposition—Tarcísio de Freitas at 24%, Ratinho Júnior at 12%, and Flávio Bolsonaro lower—yielding trader consensus on a sub-5% plurality margin for Lula at 37% implied probability. Lula's edge reflects steady PT base turnout despite slipping approval ratings amid inflation concerns, while right-wing vote-splitting boosts his relative position. Flávio Bolsonaro's <5% margin at 25.5% captures bets on Bolsonaro family mobilization overcoming polls. Victory odds for others remain low amid no-confidence triggers like no clear challenger path to plurality before the October 4, 2026, first round.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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