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icon for Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges
Welt·Globale Wahlen

Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges

icon for Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges
Welt·Globale Wahlen

Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges

Lula da Silva <5% 30%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 21%

Lula da Silva 5–10 % 18%

Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10 % 12.3%

Polymarket

$223,670 Vol.

Lula da Silva <5% 30%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 21%

Lula da Silva 5–10 % 18%

Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10 % 12.3%

Polymarket

$223,670 Vol.

icon for Lula da Silva 15%+

Lula da Silva 15%+

$3,991 Vol.

4%

icon for Lula da Silva 10–15 %

Lula da Silva 10–15 %

$1,917 Vol.

5%

icon for Lula da Silva 5–10 %

Lula da Silva 5–10 %

$6,298 Vol.

23%

icon for Lula da Silva <5%

Lula da Silva <5%

$2,248 Vol.

30%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro 10 %+

Flávio Bolsonaro 10 %+

$1,244 Vol.

17%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10 %

Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10 %

$1,518 Vol.

12%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

$3,086 Vol.

21%

icon for Sieg von Renan Santos

Sieg von Renan Santos

$199,434 Vol.

5%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas Sieg

Tarcisio de Freitas Sieg

$880 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior Sieg

Ratinho Júnior Sieg

$1,405 Vol.

1%

icon for Andere

Andere

$1,647 Vol.

5%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha, Quaest, and Nexus/BTG Pactual, released between April 9-19, show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro separated by margins under 7% in first-round scenarios—such as Lula's 44%-38% or 37%-32% leads—driving trader consensus toward tight outcomes like Lula or Flávio victories below 10%. Lula's approval has fallen to 44% amid economic headwinds and 51% disapproval, boosting Flávio's momentum as Jair Bolsonaro's endorsed successor consolidating the right-wing base. The polarized electorate and fragmented field, with Renan Santos at low-single digits, keep the race contested ahead of October 4; candidate debates, June party conventions, or economic shifts could widen leads and reshape probabilities.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$223,670
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha, Quaest, and Nexus/BTG Pactual, released between April 9-19, show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro separated by margins under 7% in first-round scenarios—such as Lula's 44%-38% or 37%-32% leads—driving trader consensus toward tight outcomes like Lula or Flávio victories below 10%. Lula's approval has fallen to 44% amid economic headwinds and 51% disapproval, boosting Flávio's momentum as Jair Bolsonaro's endorsed successor consolidating the right-wing base. The polarized electorate and fragmented field, with Renan Santos at low-single digits, keep the race contested ahead of October 4; candidate debates, June party conventions, or economic shifts could widen leads and reshape probabilities.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$223,670
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 11 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Lula da Silva <5%" mit 30%, gefolgt von „Lula da Silva 5–10 %" mit 23%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 30¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 30% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $223.7K generiert, seit der Markt am Feb 11, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 11 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges" ist „Lula da Silva <5%" mit 30%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 30% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Lula da Silva 5–10 %" mit 23%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: Marge des Sieges" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.