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Wahlen·Bulgarien

# of seats won by PB in Bulgarian Parliamentary Election?

Market icon
Wahlen·Bulgarien

# of seats won by PB in Bulgarian Parliamentary Election?

90-94 34%

85-89 10%

75-79 9%

80-84 9%

Polymarket
NEW

90-94 34%

85-89 10%

75-79 9%

80-84 9%

Polymarket
NEW

<75

$290 Vol.

7%

75-79

$388 Vol.

9%

80-84

$21 Vol.

9%

85-89

$18 Vol.

26%

90-94

$785 Vol.

34%

95+

$66 Vol.

22%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Progressive Bulgaria (PB) in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Trader consensus favors Progressive Bulgaria (PB) securing 90-94 seats at 34% implied probability in the April 19, 2026, snap parliamentary election, reflecting late-March polls from Alpha Research, Trend, and MarketLinks showing PB at 29-31% vote share—projecting 86-92 seats in the 240-seat National Assembly under proportional representation with a 4% threshold. This lead stems from former President Rumen Radev's January resignation to form the new centre-left PB coalition, capitalizing on public backlash against the GERB-led Zhelyazkov government's December 2025 collapse over budget protests and corruption allegations. GERB-SDS trails at 19-23% (56-70 seats), with a fragmented field—PP-DB (11-15%), DPS (10%), Revival (6-8%)—diluting opposition votes amid high undecideds (10-15%) and low turnout expectations. Campaign momentum, debates, or scandals could consolidate support toward 95+ seats or drop below 85, though PB falls short of the 121-seat majority regardless, necessitating coalition negotiations.

Trader consensus favors Progressive Bulgaria (PB) securing 90-94 seats at 34% implied probability in the April 19, 2026, snap parliamentary election, reflecting late-March polls from Alpha Research, Trend, and MarketLinks showing PB at 29-31% vote share—projecting 86-92 seats in the 240-seat National Assembly under proportional representation with a 4% threshold. This lead stems from former President Rumen Radev's January resignation to form the new centre-left PB coalition, capitalizing on public backlash against the GERB-led Zhelyazkov government's December 2025 collapse over budget protests and corruption allegations. GERB-SDS trails at 19-23% (56-70 seats), with a fragmented field—PP-DB (11-15%), DPS (10%), Revival (6-8%)—diluting opposition votes amid high undecideds (10-15%) and low turnout expectations. Campaign momentum, debates, or scandals could consolidate support toward 95+ seats or drop below 85, though PB falls short of the 121-seat majority regardless, necessitating coalition negotiations.

Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Progressive Bulgaria (PB) in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Trader consensus favors Progressive Bulgaria (PB) securing 90-94 seats at 34% implied probability in the April 19, 2026, snap parliamentary election, reflecting late-March polls from Alpha Research, Trend, and MarketLinks showing PB at 29-31% vote share—projecting 86-92 seats in the 240-seat National Assembly under proportional representation with a 4% threshold. This lead stems from former President Rumen Radev's January resignation to form the new centre-left PB coalition, capitalizing on public backlash against the GERB-led Zhelyazkov government's December 2025 collapse over budget protests and corruption allegations. GERB-SDS trails at 19-23% (56-70 seats), with a fragmented field—PP-DB (11-15%), DPS (10%), Revival (6-8%)—diluting opposition votes amid high undecideds (10-15%) and low turnout expectations. Campaign momentum, debates, or scandals could consolidate support toward 95+ seats or drop below 85, though PB falls short of the 121-seat majority regardless, necessitating coalition negotiations.

Trader consensus favors Progressive Bulgaria (PB) securing 90-94 seats at 34% implied probability in the April 19, 2026, snap parliamentary election, reflecting late-March polls from Alpha Research, Trend, and MarketLinks showing PB at 29-31% vote share—projecting 86-92 seats in the 240-seat National Assembly under proportional representation with a 4% threshold. This lead stems from former President Rumen Radev's January resignation to form the new centre-left PB coalition, capitalizing on public backlash against the GERB-led Zhelyazkov government's December 2025 collapse over budget protests and corruption allegations. GERB-SDS trails at 19-23% (56-70 seats), with a fragmented field—PP-DB (11-15%), DPS (10%), Revival (6-8%)—diluting opposition votes amid high undecideds (10-15%) and low turnout expectations. Campaign momentum, debates, or scandals could consolidate support toward 95+ seats or drop below 85, though PB falls short of the 121-seat majority regardless, necessitating coalition negotiations.

Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert

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Häufig gestellte Fragen

„# of seats won by PB in Bulgarian Parliamentary Election?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 6 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „90-94" mit 34%, gefolgt von „85-89" mit 26%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 34¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 34% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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