Recent polls from Trend (March 19), Alpha Research, and Market Links (March 21) show Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new alliance led by former President Rumen Radev, leading with 29-31% support against GERB-SDS's 20-22%, implying a 7-12 percentage point margin that aligns with trader consensus pricing PB 10-15% victory (40.5%) and 5-10% (23.5%) as top outcomes. This positioning stems from PB's surge since Radev's January resignation from the presidency and party registration in early March, capitalizing on voter fatigue after Bulgaria's seventh snap parliamentary election cycle since 2021 amid government collapse over budget protests and corruption allegations. GERB-SDS Victory at 21% reflects its incumbency but persistent deadlock risks, with the April 19 vote looming as the key catalyst.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertPB 10-15% 41%
PB 5-10% 24%
PB <5% 22%
PB 15-20% 21%
NEW
NEW
Apr 19, 2026
PB 20%+
15%
PB 15-20%
21%
PB 10-15%
41%
PB 5-10%
24%
PB <5%
22%
GERB-SDS-Sieg
21%
Other
21%
PB 10-15% 41%
PB 5-10% 24%
PB <5% 22%
PB 15-20% 21%
NEW
NEW
Apr 19, 2026
PB 20%+
$20 Vol.
15%
PB 15-20%
$0 Vol.
21%
PB 10-15%
$140 Vol.
41%
PB 5-10%
$0 Vol.
24%
PB <5%
$0 Vol.
22%
GERB-SDS-Sieg
$0 Vol.
21%
Other
$0 Vol.
21%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Recent polls from Trend (March 19), Alpha Research, and Market Links (March 21) show Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new alliance led by former President Rumen Radev, leading with 29-31% support against GERB-SDS's 20-22%, implying a 7-12 percentage point margin that aligns with trader consensus pricing PB 10-15% victory (40.5%) and 5-10% (23.5%) as top outcomes. This positioning stems from PB's surge since Radev's January resignation from the presidency and party registration in early March, capitalizing on voter fatigue after Bulgaria's seventh snap parliamentary election cycle since 2021 amid government collapse over budget protests and corruption allegations. GERB-SDS Victory at 21% reflects its incumbency but persistent deadlock risks, with the April 19 vote looming as the key catalyst.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Markt eröffnet: Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
Volumen
$160Enddatum
Apr 19, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).Recent polls from Trend (March 19), Alpha Research, and Market Links (March 21) show Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new alliance led by former President Rumen Radev, leading with 29-31% support against GERB-SDS's 20-22%, implying a 7-12 percentage point margin that aligns with trader consensus pricing PB 10-15% victory (40.5%) and 5-10% (23.5%) as top outcomes. This positioning stems from PB's surge since Radev's January resignation from the presidency and party registration in early March, capitalizing on voter fatigue after Bulgaria's seventh snap parliamentary election cycle since 2021 amid government collapse over budget protests and corruption allegations. GERB-SDS Victory at 21% reflects its incumbency but persistent deadlock risks, with the April 19 vote looming as the key catalyst.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bulgaria on April 19, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes in this election.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the political party that wins the most valid votes nationwide and the political party that wins the second-most valid votes nationwide. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between the two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If any unlisted party wins the most valid votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Volumen
$160Enddatum
Apr 19, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 27, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from Trend (March 19), Alpha Research, and Market Links (March 21) show Progressive Bulgaria (PB), the new alliance led by former President Rumen Radev, leading with 29-31% support against GERB-SDS's 20-22%, implying a 7-12 percentage point margin that aligns with trader consensus pricing PB 10-15% victory (40.5%) and 5-10% (23.5%) as top outcomes. This positioning stems from PB's surge since Radev's January resignation from the presidency and party registration in early March, capitalizing on voter fatigue after Bulgaria's seventh snap parliamentary election cycle since 2021 amid government collapse over budget protests and corruption allegations. GERB-SDS Victory at 21% reflects its incumbency but persistent deadlock risks, with the April 19 vote looming as the key catalyst.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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