Trader consensus on Polymarket's Republican presidential nominee 2028 market prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (36.8%) and Senator Marco Rubio (27.5%), driven by post-2024 election dynamics in a Trump-dominated GOP where constitutional term limits bar President Trump's third run. RFK Jr.'s lead reflects his October 2024 Trump endorsement, independent campaign suspension, and December HHS secretary nomination, fueling speculation of party alignment and crossover appeal. Vance gains from VP continuity and Trump succession hints, while Rubio benefits from Senate influence and prior VP vetting. Odds hinge on Trump's endorsements, 2026 midterms, and early primary positioning amid MAGA faction consolidation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJ.D. Vance 36.9%
Marco Rubio 27.5%
Tucker Carlson 4.0%
Ron DeSantis 3.3%
$458,276,523 Vol.
$458,276,523 Vol.

J.D. Vance
37%

Marco Rubio
27%

Tucker Carlson
4%

Ron DeSantis
3%

Donald Trump
2%

Thomas Massie
2%

Donald Trump Jr.
2%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Rand Paul
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Matt Gaetz
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

Ted Cruz
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Sarah Huckabee Sanders
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Brian Kemp
1%

Katie Britt
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Marjorie Taylor Greene
1%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1%

Josh Hawley
1%

John Thune
1%

Kristi Noem
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Elise Stefanik
1%

Joe Kent
1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Tom Brady
1%

Steve Bannon
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Erika Kirk
1%

Mike Pence
1%

Byron Donalds
<1%
J.D. Vance 36.9%
Marco Rubio 27.5%
Tucker Carlson 4.0%
Ron DeSantis 3.3%
$458,276,523 Vol.
$458,276,523 Vol.

J.D. Vance
37%

Marco Rubio
27%

Tucker Carlson
4%

Ron DeSantis
3%

Donald Trump
2%

Thomas Massie
2%

Donald Trump Jr.
2%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Rand Paul
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Matt Gaetz
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

Ted Cruz
1%

Elon Musk
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Sarah Huckabee Sanders
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Brian Kemp
1%

Katie Britt
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Marjorie Taylor Greene
1%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1%

Josh Hawley
1%

John Thune
1%

Kristi Noem
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Elise Stefanik
1%

Joe Kent
1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Tom Brady
1%

Steve Bannon
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Erika Kirk
1%

Mike Pence
1%

Byron Donalds
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket's Republican presidential nominee 2028 market prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance (36.8%) and Senator Marco Rubio (27.5%), driven by post-2024 election dynamics in a Trump-dominated GOP where constitutional term limits bar President Trump's third run. RFK Jr.'s lead reflects his October 2024 Trump endorsement, independent campaign suspension, and December HHS secretary nomination, fueling speculation of party alignment and crossover appeal. Vance gains from VP continuity and Trump succession hints, while Rubio benefits from Senate influence and prior VP vetting. Odds hinge on Trump's endorsements, 2026 midterms, and early primary positioning amid MAGA faction consolidation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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