Spring break travel demand remains the dominant driver of trader consensus for TSA passenger screening totals March 23-29, clustering odds tightly around 18 million with 18-18.5 million at 40.5% narrowly leading 17.5-18 million at 36%. The prior week (March 16-22) tallied about 17.8 million passengers amid record daily highs exceeding 2.5 million, providing a strong baseline but leaving room for Easter pre-holiday surges or weekend dips. Mild weather forecasts support sustained 2.3-2.5 million daily throughput matching 2023 spring patterns, yet potential airline disruptions or economic softening cap upside. Daily TSA releases through March 25 could separate contenders, with strong Friday-Sunday flows favoring higher buckets or cancellations tilting lower.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert18-18.5m 40%
17.5-18m 36%
18.5-19m 19%
<17.5m 18%
$17,924 Vol.
$17,924 Vol.
<17.5m
18%
17.5-18m
36%
18-18.5m
40%
18.5-19m
19%
19-19.5m
12%
>19.5m
15%
18-18.5m 40%
17.5-18m 36%
18.5-19m 19%
<17.5m 18%
$17,924 Vol.
$17,924 Vol.
<17.5m
18%
17.5-18m
36%
18-18.5m
40%
18.5-19m
19%
19-19.5m
12%
>19.5m
15%
The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million).
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for any of the dates from March 23, 2026 to March 29, 2026 by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 1:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Spring break travel demand remains the dominant driver of trader consensus for TSA passenger screening totals March 23-29, clustering odds tightly around 18 million with 18-18.5 million at 40.5% narrowly leading 17.5-18 million at 36%. The prior week (March 16-22) tallied about 17.8 million passengers amid record daily highs exceeding 2.5 million, providing a strong baseline but leaving room for Easter pre-holiday surges or weekend dips. Mild weather forecasts support sustained 2.3-2.5 million daily throughput matching 2023 spring patterns, yet potential airline disruptions or economic softening cap upside. Daily TSA releases through March 25 could separate contenders, with strong Friday-Sunday flows favoring higher buckets or cancellations tilting lower.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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