Trader consensus on TSA traveler throughput for March 20 strongly favors the 2.8 million to 3.0 million range at 74.5% implied probability, reflecting sustained spring break demand after record screenings of 2.93 million on March 16 and 2.85 million on March 19. Mid-week patterns typically show slight dips from weekend peaks, positioning this bucket as the base case amid favorable weather in major U.S. hubs and resilient leisure air travel volumes. The adjacent 3.0 million to 3.2 million outcome at 26.4% accounts for potential upside from extended family trips ahead of Easter on March 31, while lower ranges incorporate risks of demand moderation or disruptions like minor delays reported at select airports. Historical March averages around 2.7 million further anchor expectations near current pricing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert2.8M-3.0M 60%
2.4M-2.6M 3.6%
2.6M-2.8M 1%
<2.4M <1%
$4,814 Vol.
$4,814 Vol.
<2.4M
<1%
2.4M-2.6M
4%
2.6M-2.8M
21%
2.8M-3.0M
75%
3.0M-3.2M
27%
>3.2M
<1%
2.8M-3.0M 60%
2.4M-2.6M 3.6%
2.6M-2.8M 1%
<2.4M <1%
$4,814 Vol.
$4,814 Vol.
<2.4M
<1%
2.4M-2.6M
4%
2.6M-2.8M
21%
2.8M-3.0M
75%
3.0M-3.2M
27%
>3.2M
<1%
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 17, 2026, 5:25 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on TSA traveler throughput for March 20 strongly favors the 2.8 million to 3.0 million range at 74.5% implied probability, reflecting sustained spring break demand after record screenings of 2.93 million on March 16 and 2.85 million on March 19. Mid-week patterns typically show slight dips from weekend peaks, positioning this bucket as the base case amid favorable weather in major U.S. hubs and resilient leisure air travel volumes. The adjacent 3.0 million to 3.2 million outcome at 26.4% accounts for potential upside from extended family trips ahead of Easter on March 31, while lower ranges incorporate risks of demand moderation or disruptions like minor delays reported at select airports. Historical March averages around 2.7 million further anchor expectations near current pricing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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