Trader consensus on Polymarket prices CDU at 55% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting consistent Sonntagsfrage leads around 22% in recent polls like INSA (late February), ahead of Die Linke (18%) and AfD (17%). Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD coalition holds power amid ongoing challenges like housing shortages and budget strains, but lacks a projected majority, positioning CDU for a plurality victory in a fragmented field where SPD, Grüne, and others poll below 10%. CDU's recent win in the Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl (March 2026) under Chancellor Merz bolsters national momentum, while opposition disunity—evident in low FDP, BSW, and FW shares—solidifies the lead. No major Berlin-specific catalysts in the past 30 days, but campaign intensification looms.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertLandtagssieger Berlin
Landtagssieger Berlin
CDU 55%
Linke 14%
AfD 12.3%
Grüne 8.8%
$1,295,119 Vol.
$1,295,119 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
55%
Linke
14%
AfD
12%
Grüne
9%
SPD
9%
BSW
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 55%
Linke 14%
AfD 12.3%
Grüne 8.8%
$1,295,119 Vol.
$1,295,119 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
CDU
$8,473 Vol.
55%
Linke
$7,843 Vol.
14%
AfD
$953,737 Vol.
12%
Grüne
$22,189 Vol.
9%
SPD
$280,674 Vol.
9%
BSW
$10,787 Vol.
1%
FDP
$7,796 Vol.
<1%
FW
$4,577 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices CDU at 55% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting consistent Sonntagsfrage leads around 22% in recent polls like INSA (late February), ahead of Die Linke (18%) and AfD (17%). Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD coalition holds power amid ongoing challenges like housing shortages and budget strains, but lacks a projected majority, positioning CDU for a plurality victory in a fragmented field where SPD, Grüne, and others poll below 10%. CDU's recent win in the Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl (March 2026) under Chancellor Merz bolsters national momentum, while opposition disunity—evident in low FDP, BSW, and FW shares—solidifies the lead. No major Berlin-specific catalysts in the past 30 days, but campaign intensification looms.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Markt eröffnet: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Volumen
$1,295,119Enddatum
Sep 20, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices CDU at 55% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting consistent Sonntagsfrage leads around 22% in recent polls like INSA (late February), ahead of Die Linke (18%) and AfD (17%). Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD coalition holds power amid ongoing challenges like housing shortages and budget strains, but lacks a projected majority, positioning CDU for a plurality victory in a fragmented field where SPD, Grüne, and others poll below 10%. CDU's recent win in the Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl (March 2026) under Chancellor Merz bolsters national momentum, while opposition disunity—evident in low FDP, BSW, and FW shares—solidifies the lead. No major Berlin-specific catalysts in the past 30 days, but campaign intensification looms.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volumen
$1,295,119Enddatum
Sep 20, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices CDU at 55% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, 2026, reflecting consistent Sonntagsfrage leads around 22% in recent polls like INSA (late February), ahead of Die Linke (18%) and AfD (17%). Governing Mayor Kai Wegner's CDU-SPD coalition holds power amid ongoing challenges like housing shortages and budget strains, but lacks a projected majority, positioning CDU for a plurality victory in a fragmented field where SPD, Grüne, and others poll below 10%. CDU's recent win in the Rhineland-Palatinate Landtagswahl (March 2026) under Chancellor Merz bolsters national momentum, while opposition disunity—evident in low FDP, BSW, and FW shares—solidifies the lead. No major Berlin-specific catalysts in the past 30 days, but campaign intensification looms.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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