PolitPro’s latest Berlin‑specific poll (published 7 May 2026) shows AfD slipping to 17.4 % behind the CDU’s 20.3 %, prompting a modest

AfD rises to 19%3%

PolitPro’s latest Berlin‑specific poll (published 7 May 2026) shows AfD slipping to 17.4 % behind the CDU’s 20.3 %, prompting a modest

Latest PolitPro poll shows Linke at 16.8% in Berlin, trailing CDU but ahead of SPD and Greens

Linke drops to 20%5%

Recent polls show Linke holding a solid third place in Berlin, but below CDU's lead, causing market

Polls show SPD and AfD tied at 16.6% in Berlin, with CDU leading; SPD's coalition majority in Berlin appears unlikely

SPD jumps to 12%5%

Poll data indicating SPD's weak position and the rise of AfD in Berlin influenced a brief

CDU market

CDU drops to 37%6%

Persistent uncertainty and fragmented voter preferences lowered CDU's winning probability.

Bericht über interne Krise und „Kultur der Abwertung“ im BSW, Mitglieder kritisieren Parteiführung

BSW dips to 0%1%

Ein öffentlicher Bericht über interne Spannungen und Kritik an der Parteispitze führte zu weiterem Vertrauensverlust und bestätigte die anhaltende Schwäche der Partei im Wahlkampf.

Sharp market drop after polls show AfD and Die Linke gaining ground in Berlin, narrowing CDU's lead

CDU plunges to 43%29%

Rising support for competitors in Berlin reduced confidence in CDU's outright win.

Berlin SPD youth wing proposes abolishing marriage in favor of cohabiting partnerships, sparking controversy

SPD dips to 7%1%

The radical proposal by SPD's Berlin youth wing may have alienated moderate voters, contributing to a slight dip in SPD support.

Linke polling rebounds to 20-25% in Berlin after renewed left-wing coalition talks and campaign efforts

Linke jumps to 25%13%

Renewed coalition discussions and campaign momentum helped Linke regain some market confidence in its Berlin election prospects.

CDU peaks at 72% in market

CDU jumps to 72%13%

Strong Berlin polling data boosted market confidence in CDU's victory chances.

DW Berlin Briefing reports that the AfD’s “moment” is now “real” after a series of strong regional poll wins, driving the

AfD jumps to 51%6%

DW Berlin Briefing reports that the AfD’s “moment” is now “real” after a series of strong regional poll wins, driving the

BSW bestätigt Wahlprogramm und Spitzenkandidaten Alexander King für die Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl

Die Partei stellte ihr Programm erneut vor und betonte Forderungen wie Mindestlohn und Friedenspolitik, konnte jedoch keine signifikante Marktbelebung erzielen.

Continued polling gains for Greens in Berlin push market

Grüne rises to 18%3%

Sustained positive polling momentum for the Greens in Berlin contributed to further

Polls show slight recovery in Green support in Berlin, with

Grüne rises to 15%4%

Improved polling data for the Greens in Berlin led to a temporary

YouGov poll reveals 79% dissatisfaction with Merz's CDU/SPD coalition government; SPD support drops to 13%, its worst since 2019

SPD rises to 9%2%

Continued public dissatisfaction with the governing coalition, including SPD, kept SPD's chances low but stable.

Berlin polls confirm CDU and SPD coalition likely, with Linke polling around 10-12%

Linke rises to 12%2%

Berlin polls confirm CDU and SPD coalition likely, with Linke polling around 10-12%

AfD’s Berlin parliamentary group announces a “firewall”‑breakthrough strategy, claiming it will no longer be excluded from coalition talks if it reaches 10 % of the vote; the bold

AfD jumps to 20%5%

AfD’s Berlin parliamentary group announces a “firewall”‑breakthrough strategy, claiming it will no longer be excluded from coalition talks if it reaches 10 % of the vote; the bold claim spikes the

Linke hits a low of 9-10% in Berlin polls amid internal party struggles and competition from BSW

Linke drops to 10%13%

Internal divisions and the presence of BSW as a left-wing alternative weakened Linke's polling, reflected in market

Polls indicate CDU/CSU leading in several federal states but facing challenges in eastern states and Berlin

CDU drops to 53%7%

Mixed polling results reflected uncertainty about CDU's Berlin prospects.

PolitPro’s “German Election Poll” (as of 6 May 2026) shows AfD leading nationally with 26.5 % – the highest level since 2025 – reinforcing expectations of a Berlin surge and

AfD rises to 15%4%

PolitPro’s “German Election Poll” (as of 6 May 2026) shows AfD leading nationally with 26.5 % – the highest level since 2025 – reinforcing expectations of a Berlin surge and pushing the

Polls show decline in Linke support as AfD and CDU consolidate votes in Berlin and nationally

Linke plunges to 23%15%

Linke's support dropped sharply as AfD gained strength in former East German states and CDU maintained lead, reducing Linke's perceived chances.

Leichter Anstieg der BSW-Marktanteile auf 4% nach parteiinternen Diskussionen und Wahlkampfvorbereitungen

BSW rises to 4%3%

Kurzfristige Kursgewinne spiegelten die Hoffnung auf eine bessere Wahlkampfperformance wider, nachdem das Programm und Kandidaten benannt wurden, blieben aber ohne nachhaltige Wirkung.

Reuters‑Connect publishes the Berlin AfD’s new campaign launch, featuring deputy state chairman Ronald Gläser and campaign manager Rolf Wiedenhaupt, which is covered positively in

AfD rises to 10%3%

Reuters‑Connect publishes the Berlin AfD’s new campaign launch, featuring deputy state chairman Ronald Gläser and campaign manager Rolf Wiedenhaupt, which is covered positively in the media and lifts the

Polls show AfD leading nationally with 26.5%, CDU/CSU trailing at 24.3%, signaling increased competition

CDU drops to 57%6%

Rising AfD support nationally pressured CDU's perceived chances in Berlin.

Linke peaks in polling at 36-38% in some short-term Berlin polls amid left-wing coalition talks

Linke jumps to 38%10%

Temporary surge in Linke's market

CDU achieves victory in Rhineland-Palatinate state election, defeating SPD in traditional SPD stronghold

CDU jumps to 63%6%

This win reinforced CDU's electoral strength, positively impacting market expectations.

Polls show CDU leading Berlin election with 20%, Linke polling at 16%, closely trailing SPD and Greens

Linke jumps to 28%6%

Berlin polls indicated a tight race with Linke among four parties clustered near 16%, suggesting potential for Linke to improve its position in the state election.

German domestic‑security services publicly warn that extremist factions inside the AfD pose a “serious threat to democratic order,” dampening voter enthusiasm and pulling the

AfD dips to 6%3%

German domestic‑security services publicly warn that extremist factions inside the AfD pose a “serious threat to democratic order,” dampening voter enthusiasm and pulling the

Chancellor Merz downplays CDU state election defeat, highlighting Green politician Cem Özdemir's personal victory in Baden-Württemberg

Grüne jumps to 14%10%

Recognition of a Green leader's success in Baden-Württemberg briefly raised hopes for Greens, causing a

Early setbacks in coalition talks and rising AfD polling cause CDU market

CDU drops to 50%12%

Difficulties in coalition negotiations and AfD's gains raised doubts about CDU's dominance.

CDU/CSU and SPD begin exploratory coalition talks in Berlin after 2025 federal election; CDU leader Friedrich Merz aims for coalition by Easter

CDU jumps to 62%7%

Coalition talks suggested CDU's strong position in government formation, boosting market confidence.

Poll shows AfD leads nationwide with 27%, SPD falls to 15%, marking a record low for SPD support

SPD dips to 5%2%

Rising AfD popularity and declining SPD support in national polls reflected shifting voter sentiment away from SPD, depressing market confidence.

Austritt von BSW-Minister Robert Crumbach aus der Brandenburger Landesregierung wegen Koalitionsstreitigkeiten

BSW dips to 0%1%

Der Abgang von wichtigen BSW-Politikern aus der Regierung Brandenburgs, darunter der stellvertretende Ministerpräsident, signalisierte interne Zerwürfnisse und reduzierte die Wahrnehmung der Partei als regierungsfähig.

First nationwide GMS poll (fieldwork 23 Dec 2025 – 5 Jan 2026) shows AfD at 27 % – one point higher than the November poll and three points ahead of the CDU, sparking a sharp

AfD rises to 9%3%

First nationwide GMS poll (fieldwork 23 Dec 2025 – 5 Jan 2026) shows AfD at 27 % – one point higher than the November poll and three points ahead of the CDU, sparking a sharp

Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) requests full recount of 2025 federal election results citing overseas voting problems; recount request rejected on 2025-12-04, increasing uncertainty in left-wing vote distribution

CDU jumps to 60%10%

This event heightened uncertainty among voters and markets about left-wing fragmentation, indirectly benefiting CDU's perceived chances.

BSW beschließt Wahlprogramm für die Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl mit Schwerpunkt Frieden, Wirtschaft und Soziales; Spitzenkandidat Alexander King kündigt Kurs gegen „alte Parteien“ an

BSW plunges to 1%49%

Das Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht stellte sein Wahlprogramm vor, positionierte sich als Friedenspartei und setzte Schwerpunkte auf soziale Themen, was jedoch offenbar nicht zu einer nachhaltigen Marktbelebung führte.

DW reports that the AfD is positioning the 2026 state elections as a “political laboratory” in the east, prompting analysts to forecast a strong showing in Berlin and pushing the

AfD rises to 50%4%

DW reports that the AfD is positioning the 2026 state elections as a “political laboratory” in the east, prompting analysts to forecast a strong showing in Berlin and pushing the market to a 50 % “yes”

2025 German federal election results show Linke narrowly surpassing 5% threshold, gaining Bundestag seats but facing competition from BSW split

Linke plunges to 22%28%

Linke's federal election performance was a mixed signal: they returned to the Bundestag with 8.8% but the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) split the left vote, creating uncertainty about Linke's future strength.

Polls indicate CDU–SPD coalition preferred by 45% of Berlin voters, SPD–Green–Left coalition preferred by only 26%

Grüne dips to 4%4%

Polling showing stronger support for CDU–SPD coalitions over SPD–Green–Left coalitions in Berlin dampened expectations for a Green-led victory.

Berlin AfD names longtime party leader Kristin Brinker as its top candidate for the 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election, signalling an aggressive push for a larger parliamentary group

AfD dips to 46%4%

Berlin AfD names longtime party leader Kristin Brinker as its top candidate for the 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election, signalling an aggressive push for a larger parliamentary group

Greens win the eastern German state of Thuringia election, marking a regional success

Grüne rises to 8%2%

This regional win provided a brief boost to the Greens' prospects, reflected in a modest

SPD suffers worst federal election result in 138 years, coming third with 16.4% under Chancellor Olaf Scholz and co-leader Saskia Esken

SPD plunges to 12%38%

The SPD's historic low in the early 2025 federal election severely damaged its perceived electoral strength, triggering a sharp drop in market confidence for SPD's chances in Berlin.

2025 German federal election results show CDU largest party nationally, Greens trailing in third place around 14% support

Grüne rises to 6%2%

The Greens' third-place position nationally and the CDU's strong showing reduced optimism about a Green victory in Berlin, contributing to low market

2023 Berlin state election results show Greens as second-largest party with 18.9%, narrowly behind SPD by 53 votes

Grüne plunges to 1%49%

The Greens grew to become the second-largest party but failed to overtake the SPD, signaling limited momentum and weakening their perceived chances of winning the next Berlin election.