Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste at 61.5% implied probability to win the Terrebonne federal by-election in Quebec, driven by recent polls showing her leading Bloc Québécois incumbent challenger Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné by 8-12 points amid Liberal gains in the province. Key factors include Auguste's strong local fundraising and endorsements from outgoing Liberal figures, contrasted with Bloc fatigue in the riding they flipped in 2021, while national polls reflect softer support for Bloc amid economic concerns. Sinclair-Desgagné trails at 38% despite incumbency advantages, with minor candidates like Conservative Benjamin Rankin and others polling under 2%. The October 7 vote date looms, where turnout volatility could shift dynamics, underscoring market caution on by-election unpredictability.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertTerrebone By-Election Winner
Terrebone By-Election Winner
Tatiana Auguste 62%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 38%
Benjamin Rankin <1%
Maria Cantore <1%

Tatiana Auguste
62%

Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
38%

Benjamin Rankin
1%

Maria Cantore
1%

Maxime Beaudoin
1%

Adrienne Charles
<1%
Tatiana Auguste 62%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 38%
Benjamin Rankin <1%
Maria Cantore <1%

Tatiana Auguste
62%

Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
38%

Benjamin Rankin
1%

Maria Cantore
1%

Maxime Beaudoin
1%

Adrienne Charles
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste at 61.5% implied probability to win the Terrebonne federal by-election in Quebec, driven by recent polls showing her leading Bloc Québécois incumbent challenger Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné by 8-12 points amid Liberal gains in the province. Key factors include Auguste's strong local fundraising and endorsements from outgoing Liberal figures, contrasted with Bloc fatigue in the riding they flipped in 2021, while national polls reflect softer support for Bloc amid economic concerns. Sinclair-Desgagné trails at 38% despite incumbency advantages, with minor candidates like Conservative Benjamin Rankin and others polling under 2%. The October 7 vote date looms, where turnout volatility could shift dynamics, underscoring market caution on by-election unpredictability.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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