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Welt·Globale Wahlen

Welche Kandidaten werden in Brasiliens Präsidentschaftswahl aufsteigen?

Market icon
Welt·Globale Wahlen

Welche Kandidaten werden in Brasiliens Präsidentschaftswahl aufsteigen?

$236,631 Vol.

4. Okt. 2026
Polymarket

$236,631 Vol.

Polymarket

Flavio Bolsonaro

$15,146 Vol.

82%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$102,018 Vol.

75%

Fernando Haddad

$33,152 Vol.

14%

Tarcisio de Frietas

$59,385 Vol.

5%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$17,644 Vol.

4%

Jair Bolsonaro

$9,285 Vol.

3%

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).In Brazil's 2026 presidential election, first-round voting on October 4 will send the top two candidates to a runoff on October 25 unless one secures over 50% of valid votes. Recent late-March polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round scenarios at 38-46%, narrowly ahead of São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (33-41%) in most surveys, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trails closely at 38-39% in others like BTG Pactual/Nexus (March 27-29). High undecided rates (8-21%) fuel volatility, boosted by Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal potentially consolidating right-wing support. Lula's March 31 announcement of Geraldo Alckmin as running mate aims to shore up his center-left coalition amid tightening races. Party nominations continue through mid-year deadlines, with trader focus on undecided voters and economic trends.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$236,631
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).In Brazil's 2026 presidential election, first-round voting on October 4 will send the top two candidates to a runoff on October 25 unless one secures over 50% of valid votes. Recent late-March polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round scenarios at 38-46%, narrowly ahead of São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (33-41%) in most surveys, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro trails closely at 38-39% in others like BTG Pactual/Nexus (March 27-29). High undecided rates (8-21%) fuel volatility, boosted by Ratinho Júnior's March 23 withdrawal potentially consolidating right-wing support. Lula's March 31 announcement of Geraldo Alckmin as running mate aims to shore up his center-left coalition amid tightening races. Party nominations continue through mid-year deadlines, with trader focus on undecided voters and economic trends.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$236,631
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Welche Kandidaten werden in Brasiliens Präsidentschaftswahl aufsteigen?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 6 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Flavio Bolsonaro" mit 82%, gefolgt von „Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" mit 75%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 82¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 82% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Welche Kandidaten werden in Brasiliens Präsidentschaftswahl aufsteigen?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $236.6K generiert, seit der Markt am Sep 18, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Welche Kandidaten werden in Brasiliens Präsidentschaftswahl aufsteigen?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 6 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Welche Kandidaten werden in Brasiliens Präsidentschaftswahl aufsteigen?" ist „Flavio Bolsonaro" mit 82%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 82% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" mit 75%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Welche Kandidaten werden in Brasiliens Präsidentschaftswahl aufsteigen?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.