Recent polls from independent firms like Medián (March 17-20) show Tisza leading Fidesz-KDNP 58%-35% among decided voters—a 23-point margin—while aggregates like Politico's Poll of Polls indicate Tisza at 52% versus Fidesz's 37%, driving trader bets toward a Tisza popular vote win by 9% or more for the April 12 parliamentary election. Péter Magyar's Tisza has unified anti-Fidesz forces, gaining traction with urban youth and disillusioned incumbency voters amid economic pressures and corruption allegations. Government-aligned surveys like Republikon depict Fidesz ahead by 9 points, underscoring pollster divergence. High turnout, undecideds breaking late, and Mi Hazánk siphoning right-wing votes could widen or narrow the margin in this closely watched contest.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertTisza 9%+ 35%
Tisza 6-9% 19%
Tisza 3-6% 18%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3% 8%
$1,178,648 Vol.
$1,178,648 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Tisza 9%+
35%
Tisza 6-9%
19%
Tisza 3-6%
18%
Tisza 0-3 %
7%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3%
8%
Fidesz-KDNP 3-6%
6%
Fidesz-KDNP 6-9 %
4%
Fidesz-KDNP 9%+
7%
Anderes
<1%
Tisza 9%+ 35%
Tisza 6-9% 19%
Tisza 3-6% 18%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3% 8%
$1,178,648 Vol.
$1,178,648 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
Tisza 9%+
$63,140 Vol.
35%
Tisza 6-9%
$15,541 Vol.
19%
Tisza 3-6%
$38,688 Vol.
18%
Tisza 0-3 %
$22,398 Vol.
7%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3%
$50,424 Vol.
8%
Fidesz-KDNP 3-6%
$47,126 Vol.
6%
Fidesz-KDNP 6-9 %
$437,126 Vol.
4%
Fidesz-KDNP 9%+
$488,592 Vol.
7%
Anderes
$15,613 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Recent polls from independent firms like Medián (March 17-20) show Tisza leading Fidesz-KDNP 58%-35% among decided voters—a 23-point margin—while aggregates like Politico's Poll of Polls indicate Tisza at 52% versus Fidesz's 37%, driving trader bets toward a Tisza popular vote win by 9% or more for the April 12 parliamentary election. Péter Magyar's Tisza has unified anti-Fidesz forces, gaining traction with urban youth and disillusioned incumbency voters amid economic pressures and corruption allegations. Government-aligned surveys like Republikon depict Fidesz ahead by 9 points, underscoring pollster divergence. High turnout, undecideds breaking late, and Mi Hazánk siphoning right-wing votes could widen or narrow the margin in this closely watched contest.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Volumen
$1,178,648Enddatum
Apr 12, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Recent polls from independent firms like Medián (March 17-20) show Tisza leading Fidesz-KDNP 58%-35% among decided voters—a 23-point margin—while aggregates like Politico's Poll of Polls indicate Tisza at 52% versus Fidesz's 37%, driving trader bets toward a Tisza popular vote win by 9% or more for the April 12 parliamentary election. Péter Magyar's Tisza has unified anti-Fidesz forces, gaining traction with urban youth and disillusioned incumbency voters amid economic pressures and corruption allegations. Government-aligned surveys like Republikon depict Fidesz ahead by 9 points, underscoring pollster divergence. High turnout, undecideds breaking late, and Mi Hazánk siphoning right-wing votes could widen or narrow the margin in this closely watched contest.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Volumen
$1,178,648Enddatum
Apr 12, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from independent firms like Medián (March 17-20) show Tisza leading Fidesz-KDNP 58%-35% among decided voters—a 23-point margin—while aggregates like Politico's Poll of Polls indicate Tisza at 52% versus Fidesz's 37%, driving trader bets toward a Tisza popular vote win by 9% or more for the April 12 parliamentary election. Péter Magyar's Tisza has unified anti-Fidesz forces, gaining traction with urban youth and disillusioned incumbency voters amid economic pressures and corruption allegations. Government-aligned surveys like Republikon depict Fidesz ahead by 9 points, underscoring pollster divergence. High turnout, undecideds breaking late, and Mi Hazánk siphoning right-wing votes could widen or narrow the margin in this closely watched contest.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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