Trader consensus heavily favors the PL at 75.5% implied probability to secure the most seats among the 54 up for election in Brazil's Senate on October 4, 2026, driven by its roster of competitive candidates like Michelle Bolsonaro in the Distrito Federal, Claudio Castro in Rio de Janeiro, and Carlos Bolsonaro in Santa Catarina, as shown in March 2026 polls from Paraná Pesquisas and Real Time Big Data aggregated by VEJA. Recent projections from Correio da Manhã (March 14) suggest PL could claim up to 10 seats, outpacing rivals amid Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential surge tying President Lula in runoff simulations. MDB trails at 16% with strong incumbents like Eduardo Braga (Amazonas) and Álvaro Dias (Paraná), reflecting its regional leads and centrist alliances, while UNIÃO's 5.1% stems from scattered viability in states like Ceará. Leadership remains fluid in many states, with further polls and candidate filings ahead.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertNächste Senatswahl in Brasilien: Die meisten Sitze gewonnen
Nächste Senatswahl in Brasilien: Die meisten Sitze gewonnen
PL 76%
MDB 16%
UNIÃO 5.1%
PSD 2.1%
$246,735 Vol.
$246,735 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
PL
76%
MDB
16%
UNIÃO
5%
PSD
2%
NOVO
1%
PSDB
<1%
PT
<1%
PSB
<1%
PODEMOS
<1%
PP
<1%
REPUBLICANOS
<1%
PDT
<1%
PL 76%
MDB 16%
UNIÃO 5.1%
PSD 2.1%
$246,735 Vol.
$246,735 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
PL
$240,358 Vol.
76%
MDB
$610 Vol.
16%
UNIÃO
$652 Vol.
5%
PSD
$718 Vol.
2%
NOVO
$686 Vol.
1%
PSDB
$476 Vol.
<1%
PT
$586 Vol.
<1%
PSB
$526 Vol.
<1%
PODEMOS
$465 Vol.
<1%
PP
$661 Vol.
<1%
REPUBLICANOS
$529 Vol.
<1%
PDT
$467 Vol.
<1%
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus heavily favors the PL at 75.5% implied probability to secure the most seats among the 54 up for election in Brazil's Senate on October 4, 2026, driven by its roster of competitive candidates like Michelle Bolsonaro in the Distrito Federal, Claudio Castro in Rio de Janeiro, and Carlos Bolsonaro in Santa Catarina, as shown in March 2026 polls from Paraná Pesquisas and Real Time Big Data aggregated by VEJA. Recent projections from Correio da Manhã (March 14) suggest PL could claim up to 10 seats, outpacing rivals amid Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential surge tying President Lula in runoff simulations. MDB trails at 16% with strong incumbents like Eduardo Braga (Amazonas) and Álvaro Dias (Paraná), reflecting its regional leads and centrist alliances, while UNIÃO's 5.1% stems from scattered viability in states like Ceará. Leadership remains fluid in many states, with further polls and candidate filings ahead.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volumen
$246,735Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus heavily favors the PL at 75.5% implied probability to secure the most seats among the 54 up for election in Brazil's Senate on October 4, 2026, driven by its roster of competitive candidates like Michelle Bolsonaro in the Distrito Federal, Claudio Castro in Rio de Janeiro, and Carlos Bolsonaro in Santa Catarina, as shown in March 2026 polls from Paraná Pesquisas and Real Time Big Data aggregated by VEJA. Recent projections from Correio da Manhã (March 14) suggest PL could claim up to 10 seats, outpacing rivals amid Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential surge tying President Lula in runoff simulations. MDB trails at 16% with strong incumbents like Eduardo Braga (Amazonas) and Álvaro Dias (Paraná), reflecting its regional leads and centrist alliances, while UNIÃO's 5.1% stems from scattered viability in states like Ceará. Leadership remains fluid in many states, with further polls and candidate filings ahead.
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$246,735Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 11, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the PL at 75.5% implied probability to secure the most seats among the 54 up for election in Brazil's Senate on October 4, 2026, driven by its roster of competitive candidates like Michelle Bolsonaro in the Distrito Federal, Claudio Castro in Rio de Janeiro, and Carlos Bolsonaro in Santa Catarina, as shown in March 2026 polls from Paraná Pesquisas and Real Time Big Data aggregated by VEJA. Recent projections from Correio da Manhã (March 14) suggest PL could claim up to 10 seats, outpacing rivals amid Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential surge tying President Lula in runoff simulations. MDB trails at 16% with strong incumbents like Eduardo Braga (Amazonas) and Álvaro Dias (Paraná), reflecting its regional leads and centrist alliances, while UNIÃO's 5.1% stems from scattered viability in states like Ceará. Leadership remains fluid in many states, with further polls and candidate filings ahead.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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