Trader consensus heavily favors the Indian National Congress (INC)-led United Democratic Front (UDF) at 76% implied probability to emerge as the leading force in the Kerala Legislative Assembly election scheduled for April 9, 2026, driven by a recent Manorama News-C Voter survey of nearly 90,000 respondents projecting UDF wins in 69-81 of 140 seats versus 57-69 for the incumbent Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF). Anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's government after a decade in power, fueled by concerns over price rises, corruption allegations, and women's safety issues, has boosted UDF momentum, reinforced by its 2024 Lok Sabha dominance translated to assembly segment leads in 111 seats. LDF's defensive stance amid UDF claims of an LDF-BJP nexus, alongside Rahul Gandhi's active campaigning, sustains the tight bipolar contest, while BJP-led NDA remains marginal at under 1% odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWahlsieger der Legislativversammlung von Kerala
Wahlsieger der Legislativversammlung von Kerala
INC 76%
CPI(M) 22%
BJP <1%
JD(S) <1%
$131,626 Vol.
$131,626 Vol.
9. Apr. 2026
INC
76%
CPI(M)
22%
BJP
1%
JD(S)
<1%
IUML
<1%
NCP
<1%
BSP
<1%
CPI
<1%
RSP
<1%
KEC(M)
<1%
INC 76%
CPI(M) 22%
BJP <1%
JD(S) <1%
$131,626 Vol.
$131,626 Vol.
9. Apr. 2026
INC
$8,804 Vol.
76%
CPI(M)
$8,825 Vol.
22%
BJP
$37,301 Vol.
1%
JD(S)
$7,831 Vol.
<1%
IUML
$6,707 Vol.
<1%
NCP
$31,861 Vol.
<1%
BSP
$4,129 Vol.
<1%
CPI
$17,654 Vol.
<1%
RSP
$4,079 Vol.
<1%
KEC(M)
$4,439 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus heavily favors the Indian National Congress (INC)-led United Democratic Front (UDF) at 76% implied probability to emerge as the leading force in the Kerala Legislative Assembly election scheduled for April 9, 2026, driven by a recent Manorama News-C Voter survey of nearly 90,000 respondents projecting UDF wins in 69-81 of 140 seats versus 57-69 for the incumbent Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF). Anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's government after a decade in power, fueled by concerns over price rises, corruption allegations, and women's safety issues, has boosted UDF momentum, reinforced by its 2024 Lok Sabha dominance translated to assembly segment leads in 111 seats. LDF's defensive stance amid UDF claims of an LDF-BJP nexus, alongside Rahul Gandhi's active campaigning, sustains the tight bipolar contest, while BJP-led NDA remains marginal at under 1% odds.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Volumen
$131,626Enddatum
9. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Trader consensus heavily favors the Indian National Congress (INC)-led United Democratic Front (UDF) at 76% implied probability to emerge as the leading force in the Kerala Legislative Assembly election scheduled for April 9, 2026, driven by a recent Manorama News-C Voter survey of nearly 90,000 respondents projecting UDF wins in 69-81 of 140 seats versus 57-69 for the incumbent Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF). Anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's government after a decade in power, fueled by concerns over price rises, corruption allegations, and women's safety issues, has boosted UDF momentum, reinforced by its 2024 Lok Sabha dominance translated to assembly segment leads in 111 seats. LDF's defensive stance amid UDF claims of an LDF-BJP nexus, alongside Rahul Gandhi's active campaigning, sustains the tight bipolar contest, while BJP-led NDA remains marginal at under 1% odds.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Volumen
$131,626Enddatum
9. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Indian National Congress (INC)-led United Democratic Front (UDF) at 76% implied probability to emerge as the leading force in the Kerala Legislative Assembly election scheduled for April 9, 2026, driven by a recent Manorama News-C Voter survey of nearly 90,000 respondents projecting UDF wins in 69-81 of 140 seats versus 57-69 for the incumbent Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF). Anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan's government after a decade in power, fueled by concerns over price rises, corruption allegations, and women's safety issues, has boosted UDF momentum, reinforced by its 2024 Lok Sabha dominance translated to assembly segment leads in 111 seats. LDF's defensive stance amid UDF claims of an LDF-BJP nexus, alongside Rahul Gandhi's active campaigning, sustains the tight bipolar contest, while BJP-led NDA remains marginal at under 1% odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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