Trader consensus favors Ronaldo Caiado at 32.5% for third place in Brazil's 2026 presidential election first round, narrowly ahead of Renan Santos at 29%, reflecting a fragmented center-right field behind presumed frontrunners Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and a leading conservative challenger. Recent October 2024 municipal elections boosted governors like Caiado in Goiás through strong allied performances in the Center-West, while Santos gained from regional momentum in the Northeast; latest polls from Quaest and Datafolha show them clustered within 3-5 points among opposition voters. Romeu Zema trails at 14.5% amid Minas Gerais' economic challenges, keeping the race tight. Party conventions in mid-2026 and potential endorsements could consolidate support and create separation ahead of the October first-round vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertRonaldo Caiado 33%
Renan Santos 29%
Romeu Zema 15%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5.6%
$31,500 Vol.
$31,500 Vol.

Ronaldo Caiado
33%

Renan Santos
29%

Romeu Zema
15%

Flávio Bolsonaro
6%

Tarcisio de Freitas
5%

Fernando Haddad
4%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
4%

Ratinho Júnior
2%

Camilo Santana
2%

Jair Bolsonaro
2%

Geraldo Alckmin
1%

Eduardo Bolsonaro
1%

Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Ronaldo Caiado 33%
Renan Santos 29%
Romeu Zema 15%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5.6%
$31,500 Vol.
$31,500 Vol.

Ronaldo Caiado
33%

Renan Santos
29%

Romeu Zema
15%

Flávio Bolsonaro
6%

Tarcisio de Freitas
5%

Fernando Haddad
4%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
4%

Ratinho Júnior
2%

Camilo Santana
2%

Jair Bolsonaro
2%

Geraldo Alckmin
1%

Eduardo Bolsonaro
1%

Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Markt eröffnet: Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Ronaldo Caiado at 32.5% for third place in Brazil's 2026 presidential election first round, narrowly ahead of Renan Santos at 29%, reflecting a fragmented center-right field behind presumed frontrunners Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and a leading conservative challenger. Recent October 2024 municipal elections boosted governors like Caiado in Goiás through strong allied performances in the Center-West, while Santos gained from regional momentum in the Northeast; latest polls from Quaest and Datafolha show them clustered within 3-5 points among opposition voters. Romeu Zema trails at 14.5% amid Minas Gerais' economic challenges, keeping the race tight. Party conventions in mid-2026 and potential endorsements could consolidate support and create separation ahead of the October first-round vote.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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