**Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson faces a narrow majority ahead of the November 3, 2026 midterms, with forecasts showing Democrats favored to regain control.** A Democratic flip would automatically end his speakership when the new Congress organizes in January 2027, as the minority party elects its own leader. Johnson has raised a record $156 million this cycle and is campaigning intensively across dozens of districts to defend GOP seats. In early October, he publicly acknowledged uncertainty about his future if Republicans lose, suggesting he might return to Louisiana, though aides emphasized his focus on retaining the majority and downplayed retirement talk. No active motion to vacate or internal leadership challenge has surfaced recently, and procedural disputes earlier in 2026 did not dislodge him. Traders assign low odds to an earlier departure, viewing the midterms as the decisive near-term catalyst.