Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight 2026 Senate midterm contest, with Republicans most likely holding ≤47 seats (25.5%), 49 (19%), or 50 (13.5%) after defending 22 seats versus Democrats' 13. This positioning reflects the unfavorable map for the president's party—historically averaging 3-4 Senate losses in midterms—highlighting vulnerable GOP incumbents like Susan Collins in Maine and Thom Tillis in North Carolina, alongside potential open seats in Iowa and Texas. No major developments, such as retirements, endorsements, or early polling shifts, have occurred in the past 30 days to widen the spread, leaving odds clustered amid economic uncertainty and presidential approval as key wildcards. Primaries starting in 2026 could introduce volatility through candidate quality and fundraising edges.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert52 seats
≤47 26%
49 19%
50 14%
48 11%
$2,040,585 Vol.
$2,040,585 Vol.
≤47
26%
48
11%
49
19%
50
14%
51
11%
52
9%
53
7%
54
4%
55
2%
56
2%
57+
2%
≤47 26%
49 19%
50 14%
48 11%
$2,040,585 Vol.
$2,040,585 Vol.
≤47
$26,325 Vol.
26%
48
$14,180 Vol.
11%
49
$10,248 Vol.
19%
50
$59,192 Vol.
14%
51
$154,044 Vol.
11%
52
$502,062 Vol.
9%
53
$10,131 Vol.
7%
54
$706,051 Vol.
4%
55
$390,767 Vol.
2%
56
$138,580 Vol.
2%
57+
$29,004 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight 2026 Senate midterm contest, with Republicans most likely holding ≤47 seats (25.5%), 49 (19%), or 50 (13.5%) after defending 22 seats versus Democrats' 13. This positioning reflects the unfavorable map for the president's party—historically averaging 3-4 Senate losses in midterms—highlighting vulnerable GOP incumbents like Susan Collins in Maine and Thom Tillis in North Carolina, alongside potential open seats in Iowa and Texas. No major developments, such as retirements, endorsements, or early polling shifts, have occurred in the past 30 days to widen the spread, leaving odds clustered amid economic uncertainty and presidential approval as key wildcards. Primaries starting in 2026 could introduce volatility through candidate quality and fundraising edges.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ET
Volumen
$2,040,585Markt eröffnet
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight 2026 Senate midterm contest, with Republicans most likely holding ≤47 seats (25.5%), 49 (19%), or 50 (13.5%) after defending 22 seats versus Democrats' 13. This positioning reflects the unfavorable map for the president's party—historically averaging 3-4 Senate losses in midterms—highlighting vulnerable GOP incumbents like Susan Collins in Maine and Thom Tillis in North Carolina, alongside potential open seats in Iowa and Texas. No major developments, such as retirements, endorsements, or early polling shifts, have occurred in the past 30 days to widen the spread, leaving odds clustered amid economic uncertainty and presidential approval as key wildcards. Primaries starting in 2026 could introduce volatility through candidate quality and fundraising edges.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$2,040,585Markt eröffnet
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight 2026 Senate midterm contest, with Republicans most likely holding ≤47 seats (25.5%), 49 (19%), or 50 (13.5%) after defending 22 seats versus Democrats' 13. This positioning reflects the unfavorable map for the president's party—historically averaging 3-4 Senate losses in midterms—highlighting vulnerable GOP incumbents like Susan Collins in Maine and Thom Tillis in North Carolina, alongside potential open seats in Iowa and Texas. No major developments, such as retirements, endorsements, or early polling shifts, have occurred in the past 30 days to widen the spread, leaving odds clustered amid economic uncertainty and presidential approval as key wildcards. Primaries starting in 2026 could introduce volatility through candidate quality and fundraising edges.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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