With 21 Democratic House incumbents having announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 midterms—13 retiring outright and eight pursuing Senate seats or governorships—trader consensus favors 24–27 non-runners at 32.5% implied probability, reflecting expectations of a few more departures from an aging caucus amid record early turnover across both parties. No Democratic announcements occurred in the past month, unlike the Republican exodus surpassing 36, slowing the pace and differentiating the leading bin from higher outcomes like 32–35 (19.9%), which would require a broader wave triggered by vulnerable incumbents facing tough primaries or redistricting challenges. Consolidation behind 24–27 could solidify if filing deadlines pass without surges, while poor polling in battleground districts or leadership shifts might boost higher ranges.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert24–27 25%
28–31 20%
32–35 19.9%
40+ 11.1%
$22,034 Vol.
$22,034 Vol.
31. Aug. 2026
<20
2%
20–23
9%
24–27
32%
28–31
16%
32–35
20%
36–39
6%
40+
13%
24–27 25%
28–31 20%
32–35 19.9%
40+ 11.1%
$22,034 Vol.
$22,034 Vol.
31. Aug. 2026
<20
$15,107 Vol.
2%
20–23
$3,774 Vol.
9%
24–27
$3,153 Vol.
32%
28–31
$0 Vol.
16%
32–35
$0 Vol.
20%
36–39
$0 Vol.
6%
40+
$0 Vol.
13%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.With 21 Democratic House incumbents having announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 midterms—13 retiring outright and eight pursuing Senate seats or governorships—trader consensus favors 24–27 non-runners at 32.5% implied probability, reflecting expectations of a few more departures from an aging caucus amid record early turnover across both parties. No Democratic announcements occurred in the past month, unlike the Republican exodus surpassing 36, slowing the pace and differentiating the leading bin from higher outcomes like 32–35 (19.9%), which would require a broader wave triggered by vulnerable incumbents facing tough primaries or redistricting challenges. Consolidation behind 24–27 could solidify if filing deadlines pass without surges, while poor polling in battleground districts or leadership shifts might boost higher ranges.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volumen
$22,034Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.With 21 Democratic House incumbents having announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 midterms—13 retiring outright and eight pursuing Senate seats or governorships—trader consensus favors 24–27 non-runners at 32.5% implied probability, reflecting expectations of a few more departures from an aging caucus amid record early turnover across both parties. No Democratic announcements occurred in the past month, unlike the Republican exodus surpassing 36, slowing the pace and differentiating the leading bin from higher outcomes like 32–35 (19.9%), which would require a broader wave triggered by vulnerable incumbents facing tough primaries or redistricting challenges. Consolidation behind 24–27 could solidify if filing deadlines pass without surges, while poor polling in battleground districts or leadership shifts might boost higher ranges.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$22,034Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With 21 Democratic House incumbents having announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 midterms—13 retiring outright and eight pursuing Senate seats or governorships—trader consensus favors 24–27 non-runners at 32.5% implied probability, reflecting expectations of a few more departures from an aging caucus amid record early turnover across both parties. No Democratic announcements occurred in the past month, unlike the Republican exodus surpassing 36, slowing the pace and differentiating the leading bin from higher outcomes like 32–35 (19.9%), which would require a broader wave triggered by vulnerable incumbents facing tough primaries or redistricting challenges. Consolidation behind 24–27 could solidify if filing deadlines pass without surges, while poor polling in battleground districts or leadership shifts might boost higher ranges.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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