Incumbent U.S. Rep. André Carson commands trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability to win Indiana's 7th Congressional District Democratic primary on May 5, driven by his 18-year tenure, overwhelming 2024 primary victory margin of 85 points, and superior fundraising reflected in recent campaign finance reports. Challengers Destiny Scott Wells, a prior statewide nominee and Army Reserve officer; George Hornedo, an Obama-era attorney and strategist; and Denise Paul Hatch, a former constable ousted after a guilty plea to official misconduct, lack comparable name recognition or resources in this deep-blue D+21 district. Recent voter guides and candidate interviews from early April highlight their pitches on immigration and local issues but show no polling shifts or endorsements eroding Carson's edge. An upset would require a late scandal, voter turnout surge among dissatisfied blocs, or Hornedo consolidating progressive support, though historical primary incumbency rates make this improbable absent major catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAndré Carson 96%
Destiny Scott Wells 2.1%
Denise Paul Hatch 1.3%
George Hornedo <1%
$10,248 Vol.
$10,248 Vol.
André Carson
96%
Destiny Scott Wells
2%
Denise Paul Hatch
1%
George Hornedo
<1%
André Carson 96%
Destiny Scott Wells 2.1%
Denise Paul Hatch 1.3%
George Hornedo <1%
$10,248 Vol.
$10,248 Vol.
André Carson
96%
Destiny Scott Wells
2%
Denise Paul Hatch
1%
George Hornedo
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 1:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent U.S. Rep. André Carson commands trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability to win Indiana's 7th Congressional District Democratic primary on May 5, driven by his 18-year tenure, overwhelming 2024 primary victory margin of 85 points, and superior fundraising reflected in recent campaign finance reports. Challengers Destiny Scott Wells, a prior statewide nominee and Army Reserve officer; George Hornedo, an Obama-era attorney and strategist; and Denise Paul Hatch, a former constable ousted after a guilty plea to official misconduct, lack comparable name recognition or resources in this deep-blue D+21 district. Recent voter guides and candidate interviews from early April highlight their pitches on immigration and local issues but show no polling shifts or endorsements eroding Carson's edge. An upset would require a late scandal, voter turnout surge among dissatisfied blocs, or Hornedo consolidating progressive support, though historical primary incumbency rates make this improbable absent major catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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