Incumbent Rep. André Carson's 97% implied probability in the IN-07 Democratic primary reflects his 18-year tenure in the safely Democratic district (D+21 Cook PVI), history of lopsided wins like 85% in 2024, and fundraising superiority with $646,000 cash on hand versus challengers' lower totals. Recent IndyStar voter guides and interviews (April 7–14) spotlight intra-party critiques from George Hornedo on voter turnout and legislative effectiveness, Destiny Scott Wells on special interest influence, and Denise Paul Hatch on constituent responsiveness, yet no polls show traction. With the May 5 primary nearing, traders price minimal upset risk absent a late scandal, major endorsement, or anti-incumbent surge.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAndré Carson 97.0%
Denise Paul Hatch 1.3%
Destiny Scott Wells 1.3%
George Hornedo <1%
$12,873 Vol.
$12,873 Vol.
André Carson
97%
Denise Paul Hatch
1%
Destiny Scott Wells
1%
George Hornedo
<1%
André Carson 97.0%
Denise Paul Hatch 1.3%
Destiny Scott Wells 1.3%
George Hornedo <1%
$12,873 Vol.
$12,873 Vol.
André Carson
97%
Denise Paul Hatch
1%
Destiny Scott Wells
1%
George Hornedo
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 1:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Rep. André Carson's 97% implied probability in the IN-07 Democratic primary reflects his 18-year tenure in the safely Democratic district (D+21 Cook PVI), history of lopsided wins like 85% in 2024, and fundraising superiority with $646,000 cash on hand versus challengers' lower totals. Recent IndyStar voter guides and interviews (April 7–14) spotlight intra-party critiques from George Hornedo on voter turnout and legislative effectiveness, Destiny Scott Wells on special interest influence, and Denise Paul Hatch on constituent responsiveness, yet no polls show traction. With the May 5 primary nearing, traders price minimal upset risk absent a late scandal, major endorsement, or anti-incumbent surge.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen