Incumbent U.S. Rep. André Carson's 96% implied probability in the IN-07 Democratic primary stems from his 18-year tenure in the heavily Democratic district (Cook PVI D+21), strong past primary performances including an 85% win in 2024, and superior fundraising reflected in recent campaign finance filings. Challengers Destiny Scott Wells, a prior statewide candidate and Army Reserve officer; Denise Paul Hatch, former constable; and George Hornedo, a political strategist, have gained media attention through early April voter guides and interviews highlighting Democratic infighting, but lack polling traction or endorsements to threaten. With the May 5 primary approaching and early voting underway, scenarios like a Carson scandal, Wells endorsement surge, or unexpectedly high anti-incumbent turnout could shift odds, though historical incumbent advantages in safe districts make upsets rare.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAndré Carson 96.2%
Destiny Scott Wells 1.6%
Denise Paul Hatch 1.3%
George Hornedo <1%
$11,575 Vol.
$11,575 Vol.
André Carson
96%
Destiny Scott Wells
2%
Denise Paul Hatch
1%
George Hornedo
<1%
André Carson 96.2%
Destiny Scott Wells 1.6%
Denise Paul Hatch 1.3%
George Hornedo <1%
$11,575 Vol.
$11,575 Vol.
André Carson
96%
Destiny Scott Wells
2%
Denise Paul Hatch
1%
George Hornedo
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 1:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent U.S. Rep. André Carson's 96% implied probability in the IN-07 Democratic primary stems from his 18-year tenure in the heavily Democratic district (Cook PVI D+21), strong past primary performances including an 85% win in 2024, and superior fundraising reflected in recent campaign finance filings. Challengers Destiny Scott Wells, a prior statewide candidate and Army Reserve officer; Denise Paul Hatch, former constable; and George Hornedo, a political strategist, have gained media attention through early April voter guides and interviews highlighting Democratic infighting, but lack polling traction or endorsements to threaten. With the May 5 primary approaching and early voting underway, scenarios like a Carson scandal, Wells endorsement surge, or unexpectedly high anti-incumbent turnout could shift odds, though historical incumbent advantages in safe districts make upsets rare.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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